USAU CK Gold project NPV DCF valuation

U.S. Gold Corp. (USAU)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-10-19
USD
Updated Oct 19, 2026 · Revised 5 times
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USAU CK Gold project NPV DCF valuation

Risk-adjusted CK Gold feasibility-study NPV valuation. The model starts with the May 2026 S-K 1300 after-tax NPV5 sensitivity table, adjusts for current copper and silver prices, then applies a development-stage NAV multiple, expected project financing dilution, corporate cash, expected burn, and non-CK optionality.

as of 2026-10-19

Fair value
$18.01
Upside/downside
69.0%
Adjusted CK Gold NPV5
$1.3k
Risked project NAV
$562.9
Future common equity need
$133.8
Post-financing shares
35.5
Current EV / adjusted NPV
12.8%

Corporate

$15.0$M
$25.0$M

Financing

85.0%
55.0%
$10.0$M

Market

$10.66$/share
Latest USAU quote · updated Oct 23, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Metal prices

$6.55$/lb
$4,138$/oz
$57$/oz

Risking

45.0%

Fair value vs gold and risked NAV multiple

Gold price30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%
$3,000 $/oz$8.70$10.89$13.07$15.26$17.44
$3,500 $/oz$10.47$13.24$16.02$18.79$21.56
$4,000 $/oz$12.24$15.60$18.96$22.32$25.69
$4,500 $/oz$14.00$17.95$21.91$25.86$29.81
$5,000 $/oz$15.76$20.30$24.84$29.37$33.91
$5,500 $/oz$17.50$22.62$27.74$32.86$37.97

Fair value vs gold and project debt funding

Gold price35.0%45.0%55.0%65.0%75.0%
$3,000 $/oz$9.49$10.59$11.98$13.79$16.25
$3,500 $/oz$11.59$12.93$14.63$16.84$19.84
$4,000 $/oz$13.69$15.27$17.28$19.89$23.44
$4,500 $/oz$15.78$17.62$19.93$22.94$27.03
$5,000 $/oz$17.87$19.95$22.57$25.98$30.61
$5,500 $/oz$19.94$22.26$25.18$28.99$34.15

Fair value vs gold price

chart renders on interaction

Sources

  1. October 19 Model Edge reference USAU price $11.2; provider/refresh timestamp 2026-10-19T15:24:42.491986-06:00. Retrieval timestamps are not trade timestamps or asserted official closing prints. Financial anchors retain their separately disclosed dates. (accessed 2026-10-19)
  2. October 19, 2026: Refresh the same-page Trading Economics OTC/CFD references to gold $4,137.81/oz, copper $6.5475/lb and silver $57.048/oz; these are observed reference marks, not official settlements. Stock reference $11.20 also increases construction-equity dilution mechanically under the existing financing-at-85%-of-price formula. Refresh market-cap diagnostic to $185.121003M, separately provider-dated October 19 00:00Z. Preserve FS sensitivity curve, 45% NAV factor, 55% non-common funding, existing cash/share bridge and fixed bear/bull metals. — tradingeconomics.com (accessed 2026-10-19)
  3. October 14 Model Edge regular-session reference USAU price $11.94, refreshed 2026-10-14T14:58:22.806277-06:00. Price refresh changes market-relative outputs; separate evidence/relative-method changes are described below. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-14)
  4. Refresh observed October 14 Trading Economics OTC/CFD references to gold $4,105.57/oz, copper $6.5610/lb and silver $55.629/oz; these are not official settlements. Price $11.94 also mechanically increases financing dilution under the existing 85%-of-price formula. Market-cap diagnostic $197.023886M is separately provider-dated October 14 00:00Z. Preserve feasibility NPV curve, 45% NAV factor, 55% non-common funding, cash/share bridge and fixed scenario metals. — tradingeconomics.com (accessed 2026-10-14)
  5. September 30 Modeledge reference USAU price $14.86, refreshed 2026-09-30T15:27:35.616445-06:00. This quote refresh changes market-relative outputs; any intrinsic effects are separately explained. For USAU only, the existing financing-price formula mechanically links valuation to price. (accessed 2026-09-30)
  6. September 30: seven September 29 Forms 4 disclose September 28 grants totaling 54,552 deferred/restricted stock units and 94,816 options at $14.80. Add 0.149368M to common equivalents (4.048874M to 4.198242M), not issued basic shares; add $1.4032768M conditional exercise proceeds under the existing fully exercised NAV convention. Awards generally require one year of service; deferred units also await board-service cessation. Do not double-count Luke Norman's corrected direct/indirect holdings. Refresh observed Trading Economics OTC/CFD references to gold $4,157.80/oz, copper $6.5793/lb and silver $60.407/oz, not official settlements; price $14.86 affects financing dilution through the existing 85% formula. Market-cap diagnostic $245.207282M (provider September 30 00:00Z). Preserve 16.528663M basic shares, cash bridge, feasibility NPV curve, 45% NAV factor, 55% non-common funding and scenario metal assumptions. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-30)
  7. Additional supporting source for the September 30 USAU review; see the first dated source note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-30)
  8. Additional supporting source for the September 30 USAU review; see the first dated source note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-30)
  9. Additional supporting source for the September 30 USAU review; see the first dated source note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-30)
  10. Additional supporting source for the September 30 USAU review; see the first dated source note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-30)
  11. Additional supporting source for the September 30 USAU review; see the first dated source note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-30)
  12. Additional supporting source for the September 30 USAU review; see the first dated source note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-30)
  13. Additional supporting source for the September 30 USAU review; see the first dated source note. — tradingeconomics.com (accessed 2026-09-30)
  14. Additional supporting source for the September 30 USAU review; see the first dated source note. — tradingeconomics.com (accessed 2026-09-30)
  15. Additional supporting source for the September 30 USAU review; see the first dated source note. — tradingeconomics.com (accessed 2026-09-30)
  16. September 28 Modeledge reference USAU stock price $14.8, retrieved 2026-09-28T16:46:37.736707-06:00; a post-session reference snapshot, not an asserted official close. Operating assumptions are unchanged except separately documented updates. (accessed 2026-09-28)
  17. September 28 observed Trading Economics reference marks replace September 11 defaults: gold $4,125.13/oz, copper $6.5596/lb, silver $60.763/oz. These are captured OTC/CFD snapshots, not official settlements. Current stock reference $14.80 also mechanically increases financing dilution under the existing 85%-of-price formula. Preserve FS sensitivity curve, 45% NAV factor, 55% non-common funding, capital/share bridge and fixed bear/bull metals. Market-cap diagnostic refreshed to $244.217212M (provider September 28 00:00Z). — tradingeconomics.com (accessed 2026-09-28)
  18. Additional supporting record for the September 28 USAU review. — tradingeconomics.com (accessed 2026-09-28)
  19. Additional supporting record for the September 28 USAU review. — tradingeconomics.com (accessed 2026-09-28)
  20. September 11 Modeledge reference share price $15.2. Market cap $250.817678M is separately provider-dated September 11 00:00Z; existing financing-dilution linkage to share price is preserved. (accessed 2026-09-11)
  21. September 11 quarterly filing refresh: July 31 cash $27.114710M, plus $0.011200M August warrant exercise less $1.645M remaining September property purchase gives $25.480910M pro forma cash before unreported interim operating movements. September 10 common shares 16.528663M; July equivalents 4.388898M less 0.337524M expired and 0.002500M exercised warrants leaves 4.048874M. Remaining gross exercise proceeds approximate $39.40246738M using rounded weighted-average strikes. Preserve the FS curve, $422.4M capex, 45% NAV risk factor, 55% non-common funding, 85% financing-price ratio, $15M burn and $25M optional assets. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-11)
  22. September 11 observed commodity references: gold $4,348.54/troy oz, copper $6.4782/lb and silver $64.480/troy oz. Trading Economics OTC/CFD reference marks, not official settlements. These replace the June default marks; bear/bull metal anchors are unchanged. — tradingeconomics.com (accessed 2026-09-11)
  23. CK Gold May 2026 feasibility study: after-tax NPV5 of $632M at $3,250/oz gold, $4.50/lb copper, $40/oz silver, 27% IRR, and 11-year operating mine life. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-06-21)
  24. CK Gold feasibility-study metal-price sensitivity table: after-tax NPV5 from -$147M at $1,500/oz gold to $1.774B at $6,000/oz gold. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-06-21)
  25. U.S. Gold January 31, 2026 10-Q: $36.1M cash, $35.4M working capital, no debt, 16.5M shares outstanding, and 4.45M common stock equivalents. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-06-21)
  26. Commodity marks used for default assumptions: gold about $4,160/oz, copper about $6.33/lb, silver about $65/oz. — tradingeconomics.com (accessed 2026-06-21)

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