METC SOTP EV/EBITDA valuation

Sources

1. October 20 Model Edge regular-session reference $7.22, refreshed 2026-10-20T15:09:46.393663-06:00. Retrieval time is not trade time or an asserted official closing print; financial anchors retain their stated dates. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-20)
2. October 20 price fell 5.50%. Company filing/transcript discovery and web search did not establish a new issuer forecast or verified same-day cause. Preserve normalized coal assumptions, risked $500M Brook Mine option and $170.275M net debt; the $30M jury award is not collected cash. Class B-only stock-dividend and full capital reconciliation remain open. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-20)
3. October 16 Model Edge regular-session METC reference $7.83, refreshed 2026-10-16T15:05:06.294663-06:00. Retrieval time is not trade time. Scope and separate financial-anchor changes are described in refresh context. (accessed 2026-10-16)
4. September 29 Modeledge reference METC stock price $8.38, retrieved 2026-09-29T15:15:03.396885-06:00; a post-session reference snapshot, not an asserted official close. No operating or intrinsic valuation inputs changed in this review. (accessed 2026-09-29)
5. September 29: METC fell 6.68%, alongside AMR -5.43% and HCC -4.05%. No verified new issuer-specific catalyst was found in company-specific filing/transcript discovery and web checks; sector co-movement is context, not proof of cause. Preserve normalized coal pricing, $500M risked Brook option and $170.275M net debt. The $30M jury verdict reviewed September 28 remains contingent, not received cash; Class B stock-dividend reconciliation remains open. (accessed 2026-09-29)
6. September 28 Modeledge reference METC stock price $8.98, retrieved 2026-09-28T16:46:37.217769-06:00; a post-session reference snapshot, not an asserted official close. Operating assumptions are unchanged except separately documented updates. (accessed 2026-09-28)
7. September 28 8-K/exhibit: September 25 jury award totals $30M ($2.5M aggravation and $27.5M economic loss); fees, post-trial motions and appeal remain outstanding. The separate $7.7M contract judgment was already paid in 2023. Record contingent upside, not received cash; preserve $170.275M net debt and existing coal/Brook Mine valuation. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-28)
8. September 14 release specifies the previously declared Class B dividend: $0.1535 per Class B share divided by $5.99, payable September 25 in additional Class B shares. This is not a 2.5626% issuance against all METC Class A+B shares. Reconcile actual Class B-only issuance after payment; do not change coal/Brook earnings or dilute all shares mechanically. (accessed 2026-09-14)
9. September 14 Modeledge reference METC share price $10.29 retrieved after the regular U.S. close. Quote updates affect market-relative outputs; forecast changes, if any, are separately identified. (accessed 2026-09-14)
10. September 10 Modeledge reference share price $11.45; market price alone is not used to revise operating forecasts. (accessed 2026-09-10)
11. September 10 8-K reports Joe Manchin's September 4 board resignation without disagreement. September 4 8-K attributes September 3 weakness to Yorktown's distribution of existing shares; it does not establish the cause of September 10 trading or create new dilution. August 20 8-K concerns administrative/legal appointments. No new quantified Brook Mine cash-flow evidence was found. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-10)
12. METC price was updated from the Modeledge price service on August 6, 2026. — finance.yahoo.com (accessed 2026-08-06)
13. Ramaco's Q2 2026 release reported a $15.4M quarterly net loss, $5.7M adjusted EBITDA, $400.1M liquidity, $99/t non-GAAP cash mine cost, 2026 sales guidance of 4.0M-4.3M tons, 2026 cash cost guidance of $96-$99/t, and capex guidance of $92M-$97M. — prnewswire.com (accessed 2026-08-06)
14. Q2 2026 10-Q reported June 30 2026 cash and cash equivalents of $282.535M, long-term debt net of $452.810M, Q2 FOB revenue per ton of $116, Q2 cash cost per ton of $99, and August 4 2026 outstanding shares of 51.875261M Class A plus 11.512978M Class B. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-06)
15. Hatch conceptual work and Ramaco internal modeling increased Brook Mine potential economics, but the estimates are preliminary, based on inferred resources, and include materially higher refinery capital and longer timing risk. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-06)
16. Q2 2026 call commentary indicated the Brook pilot building remains on schedule for fall 2026 completion, full-scale pilot operations are expected in 2027, and Maben low-vol expansion should add 0.6M tons at full capacity by the end of 2027. — finance.yahoo.com (accessed 2026-08-06)