AEO guided FCF DCF valuation

American Eagle Outfitters Inc (AEO)

By@hypertonx

Assumptions as of 2026-07-18

USD

Updated Jul 18, 2026

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AEO guided FCF DCF valuation

as of 2026-07-18

Fair value per share

$25.58

Upside / downside vs current price

51.0%

Enterprise value ($M)

$4,198

FY2026 normalized FCF ($M)

$258

Balance sheet

Net cash, cash less debt ($M); $103.3M cash less $85.0M debt

$18

Risk-weighted tariff refund cash benefit ($M); base gives 50% credit to $140M expected net refund not in guidance

$70

Cash flow

Capital expenditures ($M); guided $250M-$260M, base $255M

$255

Depreciation and amortization ($M); base $205M

$205

Normalized working-capital investment ($M); base assumes annual working capital washes out

DCF

Annual FCF growth after FY2026; base 3%

3.0%

Terminal growth rate; base 2.5%

2.5%

Discount rate / WACC; base 8.75%

8.8%

Earnings

Cash tax rate; base 23%, bear 24%, bull 22%

23.0%

FY2026 operating income guidance midpoint ($M); base $400M, bear $365M, bull $430M

$400

Equity

Current AEO share price; tracked price $17.03 on July 18, 2026

$16.95

Latest AEO quote · updated Aug 27, 2026 12:09 PM MDT

Diluted / economic shares (M); 167.6M latest shares outstanding

167.6

Sources

AEO Q1 FY2026 revenue was $1.195B, operating profit was $28M, and management guided FY operating profit to $390M-$410M with CapEx of $250M-$260M. — modeledge.ai
AEO Q1 FY2026 10-Q reported 167.6M shares outstanding, $103.3M cash, and $85.0M long-term debt. — modeledge.ai
AEO tracked share price was $17.03 at the July 18, 2026 refresh; no newer operating results had been filed after Q1 FY2026. (accessed 2026-07-18)

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