SSR Mining Q2 2026 run-rate EV/FCF yield valuation

SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-08-08
USD
Updated Aug 8, 2026 · Revised 4 times
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SSR Mining Q2 2026 run-rate EV/FCF yield valuation

Run-rate free cash flow valuation for SSR Mining after the completed Copler sale and Q2 2026 results. Production remains anchored to continuing-operations guidance, mine AISC is moved toward the top of guidance, and higher growth spending is charged explicitly. The primary valuation capitalizes normalized FCF and adds post-buyback excess cash. A separate mine-life cross-check limits Puna to its reserve-backed life and assigns no base value to mine-life extensions or the Hod Maden royalty. Current price was refreshed on August 8, 2026; operating assumptions remain unchanged from the Q2 2026 evidence review.

as of 2026-08-08

Run-rate fair value
$33.30
Run-rate upside/downside
4.2%
Normalized run-rate FCF
$551.7
Mine-life cross-check
$26.30
Mine-life upside/downside
-17.7%
Puna reserve-life PV
$384.5
Run-rate operating value/share
$27.06
Excess cash/share
$6.25
Pro forma cash/share
$8.21
Gold margin/oz
$1,797
Current FCF yield ex cash
10.5%
Current EV/FCF
9.5
Target EV/FCF
10.0

Balance Sheet

109.20$M
0.00$M
1,783.00$M
0.00$M
0.00$M
300.00$M
100.00$M

Capitalization

203.91M shares

Commodity Prices

$4,047$/oz
$57.50$/oz

Costs

122.50$M
$2,250$/oz
80.00$M
$21.00$/oz
25.0%

Market

$31.97$/share
Latest SSRM quote · updated Aug 11, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Mine Life

10.0%
0.00$M
2.50years

Operations

387.50koz
6.63Moz

Valuation

10.0%

Normalized run-rate FCF bridge ($M)

Run-rate
Gold margin after mine AISC696
Silver margin after mine AISC242
- Corporate G&A and compensation-123
- Growth exploration and other-80
= Pre-tax FCF736
= Normalized after-tax FCF552

Run-rate fair value sensitivity to metal prices

Gold price$50.00 $/oz$60.00 $/oz$70.00 $/oz$80.00 $/oz$90.00 $/oz
$3,500 $/oz$23.68$26.12$28.55$30.99$33.43
$3,750 $/oz$27.24$29.68$32.12$34.55$36.99
$4,000 $/oz$30.81$33.24$35.68$38.12$40.55
$4,250 $/oz$34.37$36.81$39.24$41.68$44.12
$4,500 $/oz$37.93$40.37$42.81$45.24$47.68

Run-rate operating value sensitivity to FCF yield and gold

Target run-rate FCF yield$3,500 $/oz$3,750 $/oz$4,000 $/oz$4,250 $/oz$4,500 $/oz
8.0%$24.08$28.53$32.99$37.44$41.89
9.0%$21.40$25.36$29.32$33.28$37.24
10.0%$19.26$22.82$26.39$29.95$33.51
12.0%$16.05$19.02$21.99$24.96$27.93
15.0%$12.84$15.22$17.59$19.97$22.34

Sources

  1. Q1 2026 continuing operations: OCF $299.6M, FCF $210.8M, cash $634.1M, 216.512M shares, and no significant long-term debt — sec.gov (accessed 2026-07-31)
  2. 2026 guidance: 355-420 koz gold, 6.25-7.00 Moz silver, mine AISC, sustaining capital, G&A, share compensation, and growth exploration — sec.gov (accessed 2026-07-31)
  3. Copler sale completed June 24, 2026 for approximately $1.49B cash after working-capital adjustments — sec.gov (accessed 2026-07-31)
  4. Completed $300M repurchase of 9.2M shares; board authorized an additional $500M and reinstated a $0.03 quarterly dividend — s22.q4cdn.com (accessed 2026-07-31)
  5. Hod Maden interest sale completed July 17, 2026 in exchange for an uncapped 4% NSR with no further funding obligations — sec.gov (accessed 2026-07-31)
  6. Puna had 18.1Moz silver reserves at year-end 2025, with substantial additional resources and extension targets — ssrmining.com (accessed 2026-07-31)
  7. CC&V has a 12-year mine plan and 26 years of total production including residual leaching — ssrmining.com (accessed 2026-07-31)
  8. Marigold had 2.9Moz gold reserves plus 0.4Moz in leach-pad inventory at year-end 2025 — ssrmining.com (accessed 2026-07-31)
  9. Seabee had 505koz gold reserves at year-end 2025 plus additional measured, indicated, and inferred resources — ssrmining.com (accessed 2026-07-31)
  10. July 31, 2026 spot gold and silver were approximately $4,047/oz and $57.50/oz — exchange-rates.org (accessed 2026-07-31)
  11. Q2 2026 production was 101,959 GEO at $2,622/GEO consolidated AISC; full-year AISC was trending to the top of guidance while full-year production guidance was maintained. — businesswire.com (accessed 2026-08-08)
  12. June 30 cash was $1.783B with no long-term debt; SSR Mining repurchased $337.8M in Q2 and $109.2M through July 31 under the additional authorization. — businesswire.com (accessed 2026-08-08)
  13. Growth capital guidance increased at Marigold, CC&V, Seabee and Puna, and management expected second-half production and free cash flow to be weighted toward year-end. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-08-08)
  14. SSRM current model price was refreshed to $31.78 on August 8, 2026 using Modeledge portfolio pricing; Nasdaq retained as a public quote reference. — nasdaq.com (accessed 2026-08-08)

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