SSR Mining Q2 2026 run-rate EV/FCF yield valuation

SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-10-02
USD
Updated Oct 2, 2026 · Revised 7 times
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SSR Mining Q2 2026 run-rate EV/FCF yield valuation

Run-rate free cash flow valuation for SSR Mining after the completed Copler sale and Q2 2026 results. Production remains anchored to continuing-operations guidance, mine AISC is moved toward the top of guidance, and higher growth spending is charged explicitly. The primary valuation capitalizes normalized FCF and adds post-buyback excess cash. A separate mine-life cross-check limits Puna to its reserve-backed life and assigns no base value to mine-life extensions or the Hod Maden royalty. Current price was refreshed on August 8, 2026; operating assumptions remain unchanged from the Q2 2026 evidence review.

as of 2026-10-02

Run-rate fair value
$33.30
Run-rate upside/downside
1.7%
Normalized run-rate FCF
$551.7
Mine-life cross-check
$26.30
Mine-life upside/downside
-19.7%
Puna reserve-life PV
$384.5
Run-rate operating value/share
$27.06
Excess cash/share
$6.25
Pro forma cash/share
$8.21
Gold margin/oz
$1,797
Current FCF yield ex cash
10.2%
Current EV/FCF
9.8
Target EV/FCF
10.0

Balance Sheet

109.20$M
0.00$M
1,783.00$M
0.00$M
0.00$M
300.00$M
100.00$M

Capitalization

203.91M shares

Commodity Prices

$4,047$/oz
$57.50$/oz

Costs

122.50$M
$2,250$/oz
80.00$M
$21.00$/oz
25.0%

Market

$32.75$/share
Latest SSRM quote · updated Oct 7, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Mine Life

10.0%
0.00$M
2.50years

Operations

387.50koz
6.63Moz

Valuation

10.0%

Normalized run-rate FCF bridge ($M)

Run-rate
Gold margin after mine AISC696
Silver margin after mine AISC242
- Corporate G&A and compensation-123
- Growth exploration and other-80
= Pre-tax FCF736
= Normalized after-tax FCF552

Run-rate fair value sensitivity to metal prices

Gold price$50.00 $/oz$60.00 $/oz$70.00 $/oz$80.00 $/oz$90.00 $/oz
$3,500 $/oz$23.68$26.12$28.55$30.99$33.43
$3,750 $/oz$27.24$29.68$32.12$34.55$36.99
$4,000 $/oz$30.81$33.24$35.68$38.12$40.55
$4,250 $/oz$34.37$36.81$39.24$41.68$44.12
$4,500 $/oz$37.93$40.37$42.81$45.24$47.68

Run-rate operating value sensitivity to FCF yield and gold

Target run-rate FCF yield$3,500 $/oz$3,750 $/oz$4,000 $/oz$4,250 $/oz$4,500 $/oz
8.0%$24.08$28.53$32.99$37.44$41.89
9.0%$21.40$25.36$29.32$33.28$37.24
10.0%$19.26$22.82$26.39$29.95$33.51
12.0%$16.05$19.02$21.99$24.96$27.93
15.0%$12.84$15.22$17.59$19.97$22.34

Sources

  1. October 2 Model Edge reference SSRM quote $33.27, refreshed 2026-10-02T17:10:05.99538-06:00. Price alone is not evidence to change operating forecasts; BRUN separately refreshes the existing peer-relative valuation. (accessed 2026-10-02)
  2. September 29 Gold Forum transcript read in full. Management now explicitly reiterates 2026 guidance and says Marigold carbon columns/retention pond and Seabee level-41 access support a heavily Q4-weighted plan. Cost inflation and gold-linked royalties persist. Marigold technical update expected in four to six weeks aims at multi-decade life, but next five years broadly unchanged; future fleet investment and reserve conversion are not yet a revised technical reserve basis. Keep normalized metal/FCF assumptions, current $2,250/oz AISC, cash/buyback bridge and zero speculative Puna-extension/Hod royalty value. Cash near $1.8B and historical $400M buybacks do not create a new dated cash/share reconciliation. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-02)
  3. September 28 Modeledge reference SSRM stock price $33.84, retrieved 2026-09-28T16:46:37.392951-06:00; a post-session reference snapshot, not an asserted official close. Operating assumptions are unchanged except separately documented updates. (accessed 2026-09-28)
  4. September 28 investor presentation reviewed for guidance/capital matters. Guidance is dated August 4 and explicitly neither updated nor reaffirmed; lower-end Marigold/Seabee positioning and Q4-heavy H2 production repeat prior disclosure. June Copler sale cash is already included and the July-received Hod Maden 4% NSR remains zero in the base option value; undrawn $600M revolver is not cash. Preserve normalized gold/silver, earnings, cash and share assumptions despite the 5.16% decline. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-28)
  5. Additional supporting record for the September 28 SSRM review. — tradingeconomics.com (accessed 2026-09-28)
  6. September 23 price fell 5.22%; new commentary largely repeats Q2's H2/Q4-weighted production outlook, rather than new guidance. Broader metal-price weakness is relevant context, not proof of a company-specific catalyst. Preserve normalized metal/FCF assumptions, limited Puna reserve life, no base Hod Maden royalty value and the cash/buyback bridge without adding Copler proceeds twice. Historical source and updated mine/capital review remain incomplete. — ir.ssrmining.com (accessed 2026-09-23)
  7. September 23 reference SSRM price $36.3; quote timestamp 2026-09-23T15:21:17.709671-06:00. Market price alone does not change operating value. (accessed 2026-09-23)
  8. Q1 2026 continuing operations: OCF $299.6M, FCF $210.8M, cash $634.1M, 216.512M shares, and no significant long-term debt — sec.gov (accessed 2026-07-31)
  9. 2026 guidance: 355-420 koz gold, 6.25-7.00 Moz silver, mine AISC, sustaining capital, G&A, share compensation, and growth exploration — sec.gov (accessed 2026-07-31)
  10. Copler sale completed June 24, 2026 for approximately $1.49B cash after working-capital adjustments — sec.gov (accessed 2026-07-31)
  11. Completed $300M repurchase of 9.2M shares; board authorized an additional $500M and reinstated a $0.03 quarterly dividend — s22.q4cdn.com (accessed 2026-07-31)
  12. Hod Maden interest sale completed July 17, 2026 in exchange for an uncapped 4% NSR with no further funding obligations — sec.gov (accessed 2026-07-31)
  13. Puna had 18.1Moz silver reserves at year-end 2025, with substantial additional resources and extension targets — ssrmining.com (accessed 2026-07-31)
  14. CC&V has a 12-year mine plan and 26 years of total production including residual leaching — ssrmining.com (accessed 2026-07-31)
  15. Marigold had 2.9Moz gold reserves plus 0.4Moz in leach-pad inventory at year-end 2025 — ssrmining.com (accessed 2026-07-31)
  16. Seabee had 505koz gold reserves at year-end 2025 plus additional measured, indicated, and inferred resources — ssrmining.com (accessed 2026-07-31)
  17. July 31, 2026 spot gold and silver were approximately $4,047/oz and $57.50/oz — exchange-rates.org (accessed 2026-07-31)
  18. Q2 2026 production was 101,959 GEO at $2,622/GEO consolidated AISC; full-year AISC was trending to the top of guidance while full-year production guidance was maintained. — businesswire.com (accessed 2026-08-08)
  19. June 30 cash was $1.783B with no long-term debt; SSR Mining repurchased $337.8M in Q2 and $109.2M through July 31 under the additional authorization. — businesswire.com (accessed 2026-08-08)
  20. Growth capital guidance increased at Marigold, CC&V, Seabee and Puna, and management expected second-half production and free cash flow to be weighted toward year-end. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-08-08)
  21. SSRM current model price was refreshed to $31.78 on August 8, 2026 using Modeledge portfolio pricing; Nasdaq retained as a public quote reference. — nasdaq.com (accessed 2026-08-08)

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