LyondellBasell spread-adjusted EV/EBITDA valuation

LyondellBasell Industries (LYB)

By@hypertonx

Assumptions as of 2026-08-06

USD

Updated Aug 6, 2026 · Revised 4 times

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LyondellBasell spread-adjusted EV/EBITDA valuation

as of 2026-08-06

Normalized adjusted EBITDA

$4.40

Net debt

$10.28

Implied enterprise value

$30.80

Implied equity value

$20.52

Fair value per share

$63.52

Upside / (downside)

3.1%

Balance sheet

Cash and cash equivalents

$2.63$B

Gross debt and current maturities

$12.91$B

EBITDA base

Depressed run-rate adjusted EBITDA

$2.60$B

Product and feedstock spreads

Americas PE/PP less NGL spread index

1.10

Europe/Asia polyolefin less naphtha index

0.85

Global operating-rate index

0.93

Oxyfuels/octane margin index

1.10

PO/styrene/acetyls/APS spread index

0.95

Share count

Diluted shares

323.0M shares

Valuation assumptions

Normalized EV / adjusted EBITDA multiple

Spread-adjusted valuation bridge

	FY2026E
Depressed run-rate adjusted EBITDA	$2.60
Cycle and spread adjustment	$1.80
Normalized adjusted EBITDA	$4.40
Net debt	$10.28
Fair value per share	$63.52

Sources

Q2 2026 results, segment performance, European asset-sale completion, liquidity and outlook — sec.gov
June 30, 2026 debt, cash and diluted share count — sec.gov
Q2 2026 management commentary on spreads, operating rates, outages and cash improvement — modeledge.ai

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