Nexa Resources zinc-silver mining valuation

Sources

1. 2Q26 net revenues $908 million, adjusted EBITDA $286 million (mining $220 million, smelting $66 million), net income $98 million of which $29 million to NCI, free cash flow -$10 million after a $131 million Peru SUNAT tax settlement, capex $89 million, net debt $1,476.5 million, leverage 1.40x, LTM adjusted EBITDA $1,054.8 million. Zinc production 79 kt, copper 6.3 kt, silver 2.7 Moz; zinc metal sales 134 kt after the Cajamarquilla casting-house fire. 1H26 zinc 159 kt (about 47% of the 2026 midpoint) and silver 5.0 Moz. Diluted weighted-average shares 132.439 million. — sec.gov
2. Cerro Lindo silver stream stepped down from 65% to 25% of production from May 2026 after the delivery threshold; Cerro Lindo is about 30% of contained silver (2026 guide 3.0-3.3 Moz of 10-11 Moz). Payable silver is modeled as contained * (1 - stream_pct * 0.30). Spot TCs in China were negative in 2Q26; 2026 guidance still used about $175/t and the 1Q26 call cited a settlement nearer $85/t. Smelting is modeled as a $220 million EBITDA stub because TCs are compressed and mining by-products dominate earnings. — sec.gov
3. 2026 guidance reaffirmed with 2Q26 results: zinc 310-360 kt (midpoint 335), copper 26-30 kt, lead 60-67 kt, silver 10-11 Moz, smelting sales 570-600 kt, capex $381 million. February 2026 guidance price deck remains Zn $2,850/t, Cu $10,000/t, Pb $2,013/t, Ag $42/oz, Au $3,775/oz. FY2025 zinc 316 kt, silver 11 Moz, adjusted EBITDA $772 million, free cash flow -$105 million, year-end net debt about $1,303 million. — sec.gov
4. Nexa 2025 Form 20-F (filed 2026) is the statutory annual report covering mines, smelters, streams, NCI in Nexa Peru and Pollarix, and the capital structure used to set a 85% Nexa equity share (15% NCI haircut) rather than capitalizing 2Q26 NCI net income dollar-for-dollar. — sec.gov
5. 2Q26 average LBMA silver $73/oz vs $34/oz in 2Q25; zinc LME +31% YoY (about $3,466/t in 2Q26 vs the $2,850/t guidance deck); copper LME +40% YoY. Street Hold consensus 12-month PT about $14.88 still looks like the February guidance deck. This model defaults to a through-cycle deck between guidance and spot (Zn $3,200/t, Ag $53/oz, Cu $10,800/t) at 4.0x mid-cycle EV/EBITDA, the middle of the 4-6x zinc SMID band and well below 8-14x copper majors. NEXA last $15.50 on 25 Aug 2026 (live quote 15.495); LTM EV/EBITDA is about 3.3x on $1,055 million LTM EBITDA. — stockanalysis.com
6. Live metal prints on 25 Aug 2026 were far above both guidance and the through-cycle deck: LME zinc about $3,834/t, LME copper about $14,228/t, silver spot about $68/oz. A skeptic can snap the first three metal sliders to the $2,850/$42/$10,000 guidance deck (lands near street) or toward spot (bull case). Mining cash opex $1,100 million is ROM-plus-site before by-product credits, calibrated so guidance prices at 4.0x imply roughly $16-17/share, close to the $14.88 consensus PT. — m.ccmn.cn
7. Investor relations hub for Nexa Resources (NYSE: NEXA), including mining vs smelting segment reporting, LME zinc, treatment charges, C1 net of by-products, and the Cerro Lindo silver stream. — ir.nexaresources.com