Birkenstock FY2027 look-through P/E valuation

Birkenstock Holding PLC (BIRK)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-10-23
USD
Updated Oct 23, 2026 · Revised 10 times
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Birkenstock FY2027 look-through P/E valuation

Forward P/E valuation for Birkenstock that starts with management's fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, restores the approximately EUR 0.08 per-share impact from non-recurring tax, refinancing and accelerated-share-repurchase items, grows normalized earnings into fiscal 2027, converts the result to U.S. dollars, and applies a target forward P/E. Bear and bull cases vary earnings growth, currency and the multiple; the model does not capitalize the non-recurring 2026 charges.

as of 2026-10-23

Fair value
$47.61
Upside / downside
46.2%
Look-through FY2027 EPS
$2.65
Look-through FY2027 EPS in euros
2.36
Normalized FY2026 EPS
2.06
Implied equity value
$7.9k
Current P/E on FY2027 EPS
12.3

Currency

1.12

Earnings

1.975EUR/share
15.0%
0.08EUR/share

Market

$32.57USD/share
Latest BIRK quote · updated Oct 23, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Valuation

18.0

Sources

  1. October 23 scoped BIRK review evidence; see refresh-context analysis and limitations. — ecb.europa.eu (accessed 2026-10-23)
  2. October 23 Model Edge regular-session reference $32.57, retrieved 2026-10-23T14:56:50.808513-06:00. Retrieval time is not trade time or an asserted official closing print. Financial anchors retain separately disclosed dates. (accessed 2026-10-23)
  3. October 22 ECB USD/EUR reference changes 1.1234 to 1.1205. Refresh base currency translation only; preserve normalized EUR EPS, 15% FY2027 growth, fixed bear/bull FX and stored user target-P/E override of 18. — ecb.europa.eu (accessed 2026-10-22)
  4. Regular-session reference $33.68 retrieved 2026-10-22T15:22:04.494715-06:00. Quote updates alone do not change operating assumptions. (accessed 2026-10-22)
  5. October 21: ECB USD1.1234 per EUR replaces 1.1215 for base translation. Preserve EUR1.975 guided FY2026 EPS plus EUR0.08 normalization, 15% FY2027 growth, fixed bear/bull FX and the user-selected stored 18x P/E override. This is currency translation, not an earnings forecast change. — ecb.europa.eu (accessed 2026-10-21)
  6. October 20 Model Edge regular-session reference $32.78, refreshed 2026-10-20T15:09:46.337487-06:00. Retrieval time is not trade time or an asserted official closing print; financial anchors retain their stated dates. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-20)
  7. October 20 ECB reference EUR/USD 1.1215 replaces 1.1225 for base currency translation. Preserve FY2026 adjusted EPS EUR1.975 plus EUR0.08 normalization, 15% FY2027 growth, fixed bear/bull FX and the user's stored 18x P/E override. This is FX translation, not revised earnings guidance. — ecb.europa.eu (accessed 2026-10-20)
  8. October 19 Model Edge reference $32.71, refreshed 2026-10-19T15:24:42.397023-06:00; retrieval time is not trade time or an asserted official closing print. (accessed 2026-10-19)
  9. October 19, 2026: Update base currency translation to ECB October 19 reference USD1.1225 per EUR from 1.1253. Preserve FY2026 adjusted EPS EUR1.975, EUR0.08 normalization, 15% FY2027 growth and user's 18x stored override. Fixed bear/bull currency assumptions are unchanged; this is FX translation, not an earnings forecast cut. — ecb.europa.eu (accessed 2026-10-19)
  10. October 16 Model Edge regular-session BIRK reference $33.85, refreshed 2026-10-16T15:05:06.717992-06:00. Retrieval time is not trade time. Scope and separate financial-anchor changes are described in refresh context. (accessed 2026-10-16)
  11. ECB October 16 reference USD per EUR is 1.1253. — ecb.europa.eu (accessed 2026-10-16)
  12. Williams Trading downgrade reported October 16; company guidance unchanged in reviewed sources. — streetinsider.com (accessed 2026-10-16)
  13. October 15 Model Edge regular-session BIRK reference $35.89, refreshed 2026-10-15T15:04:35.883978-06:00. Retrieval time is not trade time. Scope and separate financial-anchor changes are described in refresh context. (accessed 2026-10-15)
  14. ECB October 15 reference: USD1.1208 per EUR versus September 25 1.1403. — ecb.europa.eu (accessed 2026-10-15)
  15. September 25, 2026 Model Edge reference BIRK price $33.6, refreshed 2026-09-25T15:02:45.755442-06:00. This changes market-relative outputs; intrinsic changes are separately sourced. (accessed 2026-09-26)
  16. September 25 ECB reference EUR/USD is 1.1403; update base currency translation while retaining scenario FX assumptions. — ecb.europa.eu (accessed 2026-09-26)
  17. Completed August 17 redemption retired 12,761,613 shares for $500M; August 18 filing reports 165,126,204 shares outstanding. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-26)
  18. Q3 call confirms EUR0.08 non-recurring tax normalization, approximately EUR4.5M additional quarterly interest and no additional buyback in FY2026 EPS guidance. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-26)
  19. Fiscal Q3 2026 revenue grew 15% in constant currency; management raised FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to at least EUR 710 million and maintained adjusted EPS guidance of EUR 1.90-EUR 2.05. — storage.googleapis.com (accessed 2026-08-13)
  20. The Q3 release reported adjusted EPS of EUR 0.74, up 19%, completion of a EUR 230 million accelerated share repurchase that reduced outstanding shares by 6 million, and net leverage of 1.8x. — storage.googleapis.com (accessed 2026-08-13)
  21. On the Q3 call, management said the abnormal fiscal 2026 tax impact is approximately EUR 0.08 per share, recurring tax should return to the high-20s, and finance costs should normalize near EUR 25 million per quarter. — birkenstock-holding.com (accessed 2026-08-13)
  22. BIRK's market price was USD 41.59 at 2026-08-13T13:31:46Z. (accessed 2026-08-13)
  23. Regular-session reference $32.32 at retrieval time 2026-10-21T15:04:36.78812-06:00. Market quote evidence only. (accessed 2026-10-21)

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