Shift4 2026 enterprise-value-to-FCF valuation

Assumptions as of 2026-09-15

USD

Updated Sep 15, 2026 · Revised 4 times

Shift4 2026 enterprise-value-to-FCF valuation

Enterprise-value-to-unlevered-FCF valuation updated for Q2 2026. Full-year adjusted FCF guidance remains a $470M midpoint and net interest reflects the July Term Loan B increase. Debt and cash are shown pro forma on the same pre-deployment basis. A 12.5x multiple reflects solid EBITDA growth but reduced cash-flow guidance.

as of 2026-09-15

Fair value / share

$46.23

Upside / downside

19.2%

Implied enterprise value ($M)

$8,465

FY2026 unlevered FCF ($M)

$677

Current EV / unlevered FCF

11.5

Capital structure

Pro forma cash after July 2026 term loan ($M)

1,356

Pro forma debt after July 2026 term loan ($M)

5,514

Fully diluted economic shares (M)

90.5

Noncontrolling interests and other claims ($M)

123

FCF

FY2026 adjusted FCF guidance midpoint ($M)

470

FY2026 net interest expense used for unlevering ($M)

280

Effective tax rate

26.0%

Market

Current share price

$38.79

Latest FOUR quote · updated Oct 23, 2026 2:02 PM MDT

Multiple

EV / unlevered FCF multiple

12.5

EV to FCF bridge ($M except per-share)

	FY2026E
FY2026 adjusted FCF	470
+ After-tax net interest add-back	207
= Unlevered FCF	677
x EV / unlevered FCF multiple	12.5
= Implied enterprise value	8,465
- Net debt	4,158
- Noncontrolling interests and other claims	123
= Common equity value	4,184
Diluted shares	90.5
= Fair value / share	$46.23

Sources

September 15 review completed the indexed window by reading August 12 and previously reviewed September 10 conference content and the August 7 Form 4. FY2026 FCF midpoint $470M remains the anchor. $633M convertible principal stays outstanding to August 2027 with prefunded cash; pending A2A acquisition is $140M upfront plus contingent consideration to roughly $300M and outside guidance. Q4 Middle East travel disruption remains a downside to monitor. August Form 4 reports tax withholding and a future vesting award. The 6.55% daily fall has sector/macro reporting but no verified new company forecast cut. Retain operating assumptions and 12.5x. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-15)
September 15 reference FOUR share price $42.35; provider quote update 2026-09-15T15:01:38.554177-06:00. Stock-price movement alone does not change the operating forecast. (accessed 2026-09-15)
September 10 Modeledge reference share price $43.03; market price alone is not used to revise operating forecasts. (accessed 2026-09-10)
September 10 conference confirms $633M convertible principal is intended to remain outstanding until August 2027, with prefunded cash earning interest meanwhile. Do not assume early retirement. Approximately $300M account-to-account acquisition ($140M upfront plus contingent consideration) remains pending and outside guidance. Q4 Middle East travel disruption is not embedded in current outlook; no new FY2026 FCF guide was given. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-10)
Shift4 announced Q2 2026 materials on August 6, 2026, including its shareholder letter and conference call. — investors.shift4.com (accessed 2026-08-07)
Shift4 reported Q2 2026 GRLNF of $624M, adjusted EBITDA of $284M, adjusted FCF of $21M, and FY2026 adjusted FCF guidance of $465M-$475M with higher interest expense from the increased Term Loan B. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-08-07)
Shift4's Q2 2026 10-Q reported June 30 cash and equivalents of $356M, carrying debt of about $4.514B, and Q2 diluted weighted-average Class A/Class C shares of 79.6M before broader economic dilution assumptions. — investors.shift4.com (accessed 2026-08-07)

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