Sibanye Stillwater Hawk normalized EV/EBITDA valuation

Sources

1. October 15 Model Edge regular-session SBSW reference $9.95, refreshed 2026-10-15T15:04:35.660414-06:00. Retrieval time is not trade time. Scope and separate financial-anchor changes are described in refresh context. (accessed 2026-10-15)
2. Recovered and read issuer-linked October 14 UBS 5.02% beneficial-interest notice; it reports holder ownership, not issuer dilution. October 15 issuer commodity strip is mixed and differently timed, not proof of the 5.57% ADS rally. Preserve normalized EBITDA blend, 3.75x, debt, FX and four-share ADS ratio. — thevault.exchange (accessed 2026-10-15)
3. October 7 Model Edge reference SBSW quote $9.68, refreshed 2026-10-07T15:03:00.9349-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this price; valuation changes are separately explained. (accessed 2026-10-07)
4. October 7: issuer confirms Stillwater East/Columbus ratified agreement, retroactive June1 2026–May31 2029; wages +4.5% year1, greater of 3.5%/CPI year2 and 3.0%/CPI year3. Strike since September3 ends, scheduled return Friday October9. Distinct from September30 East Boulder agreement. No quantified lost production, restart cost or net wage/productivity bridge supports a normalized EBITDA change yet; fair value $15.011331 unchanged. Issuer price strip at 21:10 reports platinum $1,636.05 (-4.26%), palladium $1,103 (-4.83%), rhodium $9,000 flat, gold $4,104.50 (-1.20%), USD/ZAR16.63 (+0.54%); these are daily observations, not proof of the user's weekly/quarterly triggers. Metal weakness is context for SBSW -3.30%, not proven single cause. — thevault.exchange (accessed 2026-10-07)
5. Additional supporting source for October 7 review; see the dated evidence note. — sibanyestillwater.com (accessed 2026-10-07)
6. September 30 Modeledge reference SBSW price $10.21, refreshed 2026-09-30T15:27:35.193387-06:00. This quote refresh changes market-relative outputs; any intrinsic effects are separately explained. For USAU only, the existing financing-price formula mechanically links valuation to price. (accessed 2026-09-30)
7. September 30 issuer SENS statement reports East Boulder wage agreement effective August 1, 2026-July 31, 2029: 4.5% first-year raise, then greater of 3.5%/CPI and 3%/CPI. Incentive changes support mechanization. Strike at Stillwater East and Columbus continues; this is not resolution of the entire US stoppage. No quantified payroll/production/cost bridge supports changing normalized EBITDA today. Preserve the current R37.8B FY2025/R31.843B H1 earnings anchors, 40% H1 annualized weight, 3.75x and $15.0113 per ADS. SEC image-only exhibit was unreadable; issuer SENS text supplied the material content. — www2.sharenet.co.za (accessed 2026-09-30)
8. September 29 Modeledge reference SBSW stock price $10.19, retrieved 2026-09-29T15:15:02.687088-06:00; a post-session reference snapshot, not an asserted official close. No operating or intrinsic valuation inputs changed in this review. (accessed 2026-09-29)
9. September 29 6-K is an image-only market release. Full issuer SENS text recovered via Sharenet: ordinary shares gain an A2X secondary listing on October 6; primary JSE listing, NYSE ADS listing and issued capital are unaffected. No new issuer shares or changed ADS conversion. Preserve normalized EBITDA blend, R9.718B net debt, FX and four ordinary shares per ADS; existing commodity/FX/labor review remains open. — trade.sharenet.co.za (accessed 2026-09-29)
10. September 28 Modeledge reference SBSW stock price $10.14, retrieved 2026-09-28T16:46:37.857536-06:00; a post-session reference snapshot, not an asserted official close. Operating assumptions are unchanged except separately documented updates. (accessed 2026-09-28)
11. September 28 6-K exhibit recovered from the issuer-linked PDF: JPMorgan's beneficial ordinary-share interest is 5.04%. This is ownership disclosure, not primary issuance or revised earnings guidance. Metal weakness provides market context for the 4.38% decline; preserve normalized EBITDA blend, FX/ADS conversion and R9.7B net debt. — thevault.exchange (accessed 2026-09-28)
12. September 18 issuer notice confirms UBS beneficial interest of 5.03%, not new issuer shares. September 23 ADS declined 7.54%; issuer market page showed lower gold/platinum/palladium with a non-synchronized quote timestamp, supportive of commodity-sector pressure but insufficient to establish precise stock causation. Preserve normalized EBITDA blend, net debt and four ordinary shares per ADS. Complete consistent weekly/quarterly metal and FX checks and quantify Stillwater East/Columbus strike and Kwezi costs before revising operating anchors. Historical review incomplete. — thevault.exchange (accessed 2026-09-23)
13. September 23 reference SBSW price $10.55; quote timestamp 2026-09-23T15:21:17.748792-06:00. Market price alone does not change operating value. (accessed 2026-09-23)
14. September 15 issuer-linked ownership notice, recovered as a PDF after the SEC exhibit extraction returned only an image marker, reports UBS Group beneficial interest of 5.02% of issued ordinary shares. This is an ownership notice, not issuance or new operating guidance. Keep normalized EBITDA, debt, four-ordinary-shares-per-ADS conversion and FX assumptions pending the already-open commodity, labor and restructuring review. Today's reference ADS quote is refreshed; prior full-review cutoff remains. — sibanyestillwater.com (accessed 2026-09-15)
15. September 15 reference SBSW share price $11.84; provider quote update 2026-09-15T15:01:37.959322-06:00. Stock-price movement alone does not change the operating forecast. (accessed 2026-09-15)
16. Reviewed September 2 strike notice, September 7 NinetyOne 5.0056% ownership notice and September 8 Kwezi consultations through issuer-linked PDFs after SEC extracts returned images. Stillwater East/Columbus strike impact depends on duration and operating arrangements; East Boulder is outside that notice. Kwezi produced 20,658 4Eoz in H1, under 3% of SA PGM output; restructuring has no final decision or quantified group forecast revision. Preserve normalized EBITDA pending measured costs, lost output and updated commodity/FX checks. — sibanyestillwater.com (accessed 2026-09-14)
17. September 14 Modeledge reference SBSW share price $11.91 retrieved after the regular U.S. close. Quote updates affect market-relative outputs; forecast changes, if any, are separately identified. (accessed 2026-09-14)
18. Sibanye-Stillwater reported H1 2026 record revenue of R90bn, adjusted EBITDA of R31.843bn, net operating cash flow of R19.6bn, notional free cash flow of R14.5bn, and net debt of about R9.7bn at 30 June 2026. — sec.gov
19. The H1 2026 release reported SA PGM adjusted EBITDA of R19.207bn, SA gold adjusted EBITDA of R8.995bn, US PGM adjusted EBITDA of R1.086bn, recycling adjusted EBITDA of R2.683bn, and Century adjusted EBITDA of R900m. — sec.gov
20. The H1 2026 release reported 2,830,567,264 ordinary shares outstanding and one SBSW ADS representing four ordinary shares. — sec.gov
21. The 2025 Form 20-F reported FY2025 adjusted EBITDA of R37.800bn and serves as the cycle anchor for this normalized EV/EBITDA valuation. — sec.gov
22. The valuation keeps a normalized EV/adjusted EBITDA method, blending FY2025 EBITDA with an annualized H1 2026 run-rate, then applying a cyclical miner multiple and subtracting net debt. — sec.gov
23. Wise showed USD/ZAR around 16.08 on 1 September 2026, used as the spot conversion rate for the refreshed ADS valuation. — wise.com
24. Public market quote pages showed SBSW ADS trading around $11.8 on 1 September 2026; the model uses $11.815 as the current ADS price input. — marketwatch.com