Sibanye Stillwater Hawk normalized EV/EBITDA valuation

Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-09-01
USD
Updated Sep 1, 2026 · Revised 1 time
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Sibanye Stillwater Hawk normalized EV/EBITDA valuation

as of 2026-09-01

Fair value per SBSW ADS
$15.01
Upside/downside to current ADS price
16.4%
Normalized adjusted EBITDA, R billions
48.2
Implied equity value, R billions
170.9

Balance sheet

9.7R billions

Market data

$12.90
Latest SBSW quote · updated Sep 8, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Normalization assumptions

40.0%

Reported earnings anchors

37.8R billions
31.8R billions

Share count

2,830.6millions

Valuation assumptions

3.8
16.08

Normalized EV/EBITDA valuation bridge

FY2026E
FY2025 adjusted EBITDA37.8
H1 2026 adjusted EBITDA annualized63.7
Weight on H1 run-rate40.0%
Normalized adjusted EBITDA48.2
EV / adjusted EBITDA multiple3.8
Enterprise value180.6
Net debt9.7
Equity value170.9
Equity value$10.6
Ordinary shares outstanding2,830.6
Ordinary shares per ADS4.0
Fair value per ADS$15.01
Current ADS price$12.90
Upside/downside16.4%

Sources

  1. Sibanye-Stillwater reported H1 2026 record revenue of R90bn, adjusted EBITDA of R31.843bn, net operating cash flow of R19.6bn, notional free cash flow of R14.5bn, and net debt of about R9.7bn at 30 June 2026. — sec.gov
  2. The H1 2026 release reported SA PGM adjusted EBITDA of R19.207bn, SA gold adjusted EBITDA of R8.995bn, US PGM adjusted EBITDA of R1.086bn, recycling adjusted EBITDA of R2.683bn, and Century adjusted EBITDA of R900m. — sec.gov
  3. The H1 2026 release reported 2,830,567,264 ordinary shares outstanding and one SBSW ADS representing four ordinary shares. — sec.gov
  4. The 2025 Form 20-F reported FY2025 adjusted EBITDA of R37.800bn and serves as the cycle anchor for this normalized EV/EBITDA valuation. — sec.gov
  5. The valuation keeps a normalized EV/adjusted EBITDA method, blending FY2025 EBITDA with an annualized H1 2026 run-rate, then applying a cyclical miner multiple and subtracting net debt. — sec.gov
  6. Wise showed USD/ZAR around 16.08 on 1 September 2026, used as the spot conversion rate for the refreshed ADS valuation. — wise.com
  7. Public market quote pages showed SBSW ADS trading around $11.8 on 1 September 2026; the model uses $11.815 as the current ADS price input. — marketwatch.com

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