DigitalOcean AI-cloud forward revenue valuation

Sources

1. October 9 Model Edge reference DOCN price $134.82, refreshed 2026-10-09T15:02:40.370375-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this quote; operating-assumption decisions are separately explained. (accessed 2026-10-09)
2. October 9 +8.81% investigated; no verified same-day company-specific catalyst or incremental quantified guidance. September 22 Managed Agents public preview introduces usage-priced execution and tools but does not quantify incremental corporate revenue or profitability. Keep $1.175B FY2026 revenue, 50%/35% growth, 10x multiple, 12% discount rate, $280M net debt and 126.5M diluted shares. Refresh reference price to $134.82 and provider market cap to $15.76153656B; cap timestamp October 9 00:00Z is asynchronous to the share quote. Expand only current-price slider maximum from $132 to $200 to contain the verified quote. — investors.digitalocean.com (accessed 2026-10-09)
3. September 16 reference DOCN price $123.76; quote update 2026-09-16T15:00:37.960405-06:00. Current price updates market-relative outputs; operating assumption changes are separately sourced. (accessed 2026-09-16)
4. September 16 +5.01% investigated; no new quantified operating guidance or verified specific same-day catalyst found. September 14 Cloudways Velocity launch starts at $20/month but no incremental revenue/profit forecast. Retain growth, multiple, discount rate and $280M historical net-debt bridge. Quote $123.76; provider cap $14.46853408B timestamp September 16 00:00Z is asynchronous to close. Broader rate/AI-market explanations are context, not proven causation. — investors.digitalocean.com (accessed 2026-09-16)
5. September 11 Modeledge reference share price $122.95. The share quote changes market-relative outputs, not operating forecasts or intrinsic fair value. (accessed 2026-09-11)
6. Investigated September 11 -6.18% move. Company-specific filing/transcript discovery found no newer guidance change after the September 10 facility and Citi conference review; web research did not verify a new company-specific negative catalyst. Retain operating forecasts, EV/revenue multiple and $280M historical net-debt bridge. $725M equipment capacity and conditional $300M accordion remain undrawn capacity absent disclosed draws. Refresh provider market cap to $14.3738386B, timestamp September 11 00:00Z, distinct from the closing price timestamp. (accessed 2026-09-11)
7. Reference DOCN share price refreshed from Modeledge price data on September 10, 2026 to $131.05; market price alone does not change intrinsic assumptions. (accessed 2026-09-10)
8. September 10 equipment facility provides $725M committed capacity plus a $300M accordion subject to additional commitments, with advances up to 90% of equipment cost and 10% prepaid rent. No initial drawn balance is disclosed. Q3/FY2026/FY2027 outlook was reaffirmed, so undrawn capacity is not added to net debt. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-10)
9. Q2 2026 earnings call, including revenue, AI customer ARR, inference-services mix, outlook, margins, RPO, capacity and pro forma leverage. — investors.digitalocean.com
10. DigitalOcean disclosed multiple nine-figure annual customer commitments and approximately 155 MW of committed capacity in July 2026. — investors.digitalocean.com
11. Q1 2026 balance-sheet, share issuance, debt repayment and AI-Native Cloud launch context. — sec.gov
12. September 8 conference reiterated preliminary 50%+ FY2027 growth and discussed approximately 30% GPU list-price increases already included in the Q2 outlook; formal FY2027 guidance is expected in November. No incremental forecast uplift is assumed. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-08)
13. Q2 10-Q reports $937.322M debt principal, $577.720M finance leases/equipment financing and $767.026M cash. Deducting the July $471.828M note retirement yields a $276.188M pro forma bridge before transaction fees and post-June movements, supporting the retained rounded $280M assumption. July equity proceeds funded the repurchase and are not added again as cash; July-starting leases remain a monitoring item. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-08)