Hims & Hers Health DCF valuation

Hims & Hers Health Inc. (HIMS)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-10-07
USD
Updated Oct 7, 2026 · Revised 4 times
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Hims & Hers Health DCF valuation

Hawk valuation model using a five-year free-cash-flow-to-equity DCF, refreshed after Q2 2026 earnings and checked against the filed Q2 Form 10-Q and indexed Q2 earnings call. The base case uses the midpoint of FY2026 revenue guidance, retains management's 2030 revenue goal as a long-term anchor, and reflects the near-term cash-flow drag from international scale investment, product mix, and the Eucalyptus acquisition.

as of 2026-10-07

Fair value
$37.36
Upside / downside
26.5%
Equity value ($M)
$8,779
FY2030 FCF ($M)
$1,105

Balance sheet assumptions

235M
1,400$M

Market

$29.54$/share
Latest HIMS quote · updated Oct 7, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Operating assumptions

FY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030E
Free cash flow margin
Revenue path$M

Valuation assumptions

11.0%
3.0%

Sources

  1. October 7 Model Edge reference HIMS quote $29.54, refreshed 2026-10-07T15:03:01.092904-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this price; valuation changes are separately explained. (accessed 2026-10-07)
  2. October 7 8-K appoints Franklin chief accounting officer/principal accounting officer effectiveOctober9, with Becklund advisory service throughJuly10 2027. Salary$425k,targetbonus50%,sign-on$150k subject to nine-month service and $3MRSUs vesting overfouryears. No operating guidance, GLP-1/FDA or profitability update. Preserve FCFE/DCF revenue and net-obligation assumptions and $37.357680 value; no full grant-value cash deduction or invented share issuance. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-07)
  3. September 23 price declined 6.70%; recent source and web checks did not establish a new issuer guidance revision, quantified GLP-1 partnership change or regulatory action explaining the move. Preserve existing FY2026 $3.2B midpoint, 2030 $6.5B anchor, cash-conversion path and $1.4B net obligations. Convert current_price from a constant to a scalar input so market-relative outputs can refresh correctly. Existing low EBITDA-margin and negative Q2 FCF watch flags remain; historical and full regulatory/partnership monitoring are incomplete. — investors.hims.com (accessed 2026-09-23)
  4. September 23 reference HIMS price $28.39; quote timestamp 2026-09-23T15:21:17.603866-06:00. Market price alone does not change operating value. (accessed 2026-09-23)
  5. Q2 2026 revenue was $753.214M, up 38% year-over-year; subscribers were 2.891M; monthly revenue per average subscriber was $92; adjusted EBITDA was $60.3M; and free cash flow was negative $68.2M. — investors.hims.com (accessed 2026-08-13)
  6. FY2026 revenue guidance was raised to $3.1B-$3.3B, adjusted EBITDA guidance was updated to $275M-$325M, and management reaffirmed 2030 targets of at least $6.5B revenue and $1.3B adjusted EBITDA. — investors.hims.com (accessed 2026-08-13)
  7. The Q2 2026 Form 10-Q showed $841.0M of cash and short-term investments, $1.365B of convertible senior notes, $703.0M of deferred acquisition payable, and $163.0M of earn-out consideration at June 30, 2026. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-13)
  8. The Q2 2026 earnings call discussed AI rollout, retention and lower cancellations in pilots, Eucalyptus-driven international expansion, the Novo Nordisk relationship, peptide timing, and marketing spend improving to 34% of revenue. — investors.hims.com (accessed 2026-08-13)

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