Hawk valuation model using a five-year free-cash-flow-to-equity DCF, refreshed after Q2 2026 earnings. The base case uses the midpoint of FY2026 revenue guidance, retains management's 2030 revenue goal as a long-term anchor, and reflects the near-term cash-flow drag from international scale investment, product mix, and the Eucalyptus acquisition.
as of 2026-08-10
Fair value
$37.36
Upside / downside
17.6%
Equity value ($M)
$8,779
FY2030 FCF ($M)
$1,105
Balance sheet assumptions
235M
1,400$M
Operating assumptions
FY2026E
FY2027E
FY2028E
FY2029E
FY2030E
Free cash flow margin
Revenue path$M
Valuation assumptions
11.0%
3.0%
Sources
Q2 2026 revenue was $753.214M, subscribers were 2.891M, adjusted EBITDA was $60.3M, and free cash flow was negative $68.2M. — storage.googleapis.com (accessed 2026-08-10)
FY2026 revenue guidance was raised to $3.1B-$3.3B and adjusted EBITDA guidance updated to $275M-$325M. — storage.googleapis.com (accessed 2026-08-10)
Management reaffirmed long-term targets of at least $6.5B revenue and $1.3B adjusted EBITDA in 2030. — storage.googleapis.com (accessed 2026-08-10)
The Q2 2026 earnings call discussed AI rollout, retention, international expansion, and peptide timing. — investors.hims.com (accessed 2026-08-10)
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