Boost Run IREN-CoreWeave ARR valuation

Sources

1. October 9 Model Edge reference BRUN price $13.18, refreshed 2026-10-09T15:02:42.553867-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this quote; operating-assumption decisions are separately explained. (accessed 2026-10-09)
2. October 9: mechanically refresh the existing equal-weight IREN/CoreWeave market-cap-to-exit-2026 ARR method using synchronized 20:00:01Z prices $35.19/$82.08 and unchanged lagged economic shares 394.058648M/551.536602M. Preserve $4B/$19B peer ARR, BRUN $400M base ARR, 88.435141M prospective diluted shares and $131.6487455M historical gross warrant cash. This reprices the relative method; no operating upgrade follows from BRUN's 8.93% rise. October 8 CRWV Forms 4 report three CFO shares sold and 1,460 previously granted Boone RSUs settled; neither supplies a complete current share bridge. No fresh BRUN-specific catalyst verified. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-10-09)
3. Additional supporting source for the October 9 scoped review; see dated evidence note. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-10-09)
4. Additional supporting source for the October 9 scoped review; see dated evidence note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-09)
5. October 8 Model Edge reference BRUN price $12.1, refreshed 2026-10-08T15:00:50.438586-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this quote; intrinsic assumptions only change on evidence. (accessed 2026-10-08)
6. October 8 POS AM updates selling holders without registering additional securities; resale proceeds go to sellers and historical warrants no longer remain outstanding. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-10-08)
7. October 7 Model Edge reference BRUN quote $13.75, refreshed 2026-10-07T15:03:03.606405-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this price; valuation changes are separately explained. (accessed 2026-10-07)
8. October 7: refresh the established equal-weight IREN/CoreWeave market-cap-to-exit-ARR method with synchronized 20:00:01Z quotes IREN $38.69 and CRWV $88.45, multiplied by unchanged reported economic shares 394.058648M and 551.536602M. Keep $4B/$19B peer ARR denominators, $400M base BRUN ARR, 88.435141M prospective diluted shares and $131.6487455M historical warrant proceeds. This is a market-relative recalculation, not an operating downgrade from BRUN's 9.36% share-price decline. New Form 3 confirms CTO 1.4M Sept29 RSUs already included October6; do not add them twice. Cohere $525.6M is aggregate contract value, with five years per accepted rack and first acceptance expected Q2 2027; no exit-2026 ARR uplift. No fresh company-specific cause of today's decline verified; sector weakness is context only. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-07)
9. Additional supporting source for October 7 review; see the dated evidence note. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-10-07)
10. Additional supporting source for October 7 review; see the dated evidence note. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-10-07)
11. October 6 Model Edge reference BRUN quote $15.17, refreshed 2026-10-06T15:02:52.489072-06:00. Price changes refresh market-relative outputs; evidence-supported valuation changes are separately described. (accessed 2026-10-06)
12. October 6: the October 5 8-K discloses an additional 1.400M CTO RSUs beyond the already modeled 2.890M CFO and 0.300M COO awards. Increase prospective diluted shares 87.035141M to 88.435141M at full vesting; keep 83.845141M issued-share diagnostic, no RSU proceeds, and do not add the 9.214301M plan reserve as issued shares. Refresh the existing equal-weight peer method using synchronized October 6 20:00:01Z prices IREN $41.28 and CRWV $91.72 times unchanged lagged economic shares 394.058648M and 551.536602M. Keep $4B/$19B peer exit ARR and $131.6487455M historical warrant cash. New Cohere agreement has approximately $525.6M aggregate contract value and a five-year service term for each accepted rack, with initial acceptance expected Q2 2027; it does not increase exit-2026 ARR. Minimum-acceptance deadline July 15, 2027, refund and parent prepayment-guarantee risks remain; no unverified prepayment cash is booked. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-06)
13. Additional supporting source for the October 6 review; see the dated evidence note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-06)
14. Additional supporting source for the October 6 review; see the dated evidence note. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-10-06)
15. October 5 Model Edge reference BRUN price $14.33, refreshed 2026-10-05T15:03:37.158629-06:00. Price-only inputs refresh market-relative outputs; BRUN also refreshes its established peer-relative multiple. (accessed 2026-10-05)
16. October 5: reference price fell 13.20% to $14.33. No new issuer-specific cause was verified. Refresh the existing equal-weight IREN/CoreWeave market-cap-to-exit-ARR method using IREN $40.48 at 20:00:02Z and CRWV $87.39 at 20:00:01Z, with the same lagged full economic shares 394.058648M and 551.536602M. Peer multiple falls from 3.357741676 to 3.262325802; base value $16.944253 to $16.505736. This is a relative-market recalculation, not an operating downgrade caused by BRUN price. Keep $400M ARR, 87.035141M prospective diluted shares including 3.19M new executive RSUs, and $131.6487455M historical warrant proceeds. Eight new CRWV ownership filings report settlement of existing RSUs and tax sales, not new grants; they do not provide a complete current share bridge. — investors.boostrun.com (accessed 2026-10-05)
17. Additional source for the October 5 review; see dated evidence note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-05)
18. October 2 Model Edge reference BRUN quote $16.51, refreshed 2026-10-02T17:10:06.573182-06:00. Price alone is not evidence to change operating forecasts; BRUN separately refreshes the existing peer-relative valuation. (accessed 2026-10-02)
19. October 2 incremental revision: September 29 grants add 2.890M CFO and 0.300M COO service-contingent RSUs. Use an estimated diluted denominator of 87.035141M = 83.845141M reported issued shares plus 3.190M new awards at full vesting; keep reported-issued diagnostic unchanged and assume no cash proceeds. Awards are not issued common today; forfeitures/withholding remain uncertain. Refresh the existing peer-relative method with synchronized October 2 20:00:01Z quotes: IREN $41.76 x 394.058648M reported shares and CRWV $89.62 x 551.536602M Class A+B shares, giving $16,455.88914048M/$49,428.71027124M equity values. Keep $4B/$19B peer exit ARR, equal weighting, $400M BRUN base ARR and the user's $131.6487455M historical warrant-cash convention. Peer share-reporting lags persist. Base value falls $18.643687 to $16.944253; this combines mechanical relative-price changes and prospective RSU dilution, not an operating forecast cut. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-02)
20. Additional supporting source for the October 2 BRUN review; see the first dated evidence note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-02)
21. Additional supporting source for the October 2 BRUN review; see the first dated evidence note. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-10-02)
22. Additional supporting source for the October 2 BRUN review; see the first dated evidence note. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-10-02)
23. September 23 mechanical relative-valuation refresh: synchronized 2026-09-23T20:00:01Z prices IREN $47.05 and CRWV $86.9, multiplied by latest verified 394.058648M and 551.536602M reported economic-share snapshots, give peer equity values $18540.4593884M/$47928.530713800006M and ARR multiples 4.6351148471/2.522554248094737; equal mean 3.5788345475973684. Keep $4B/$19B peer exit ARR, BRUN $400M base ARR, 83.845141M reported shares and $131.6487455M historical gross warrant cash. This is the existing market-relative method, not a change to operating forecasts. Peer share counts remain lagged and post-report ATM/SBC reconciliation and full historical review remain open. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-23)
24. September 23 reference BRUN price $16.51; quote timestamp 2026-09-23T20:00:01Z. Market price alone does not change operating value. (accessed 2026-09-23)
25. September 16 reference BRUN price $15.16; quote update 2026-09-16T15:00:38.640271-06:00. Current price updates market-relative outputs; operating assumption changes are separately sourced. (accessed 2026-09-16)
26. CRWV September 15 Form 4 reports 122,340 RSUs settled September 11 and tax-cover sales. Peer shares remain the July 31 reported snapshot pending a complete subsequent-issuance reconciliation. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-16)
27. September 16 peer-relative refresh: synchronized 20:00:01Z quotes IREN $42.62 and CRWV $83.35 times reported 394.058648M and 551.536602M economic shares. Equity values 16794.77957776M/45970.575776699996M, ARR multiples 4.19869489444/2.419503988247368, equal mean 3.309099441343684. BRUN $400M base ARR, 83.845141M shares and $131.6487455M historical gross warrant cash unchanged. Today's 13D/A and Form 4 report Goodrich sale of 500,000 existing shares September 14, not issuance; August 17 denominator predates August 25 post-redemption total. No verified specific cause of today's 11.72% rally. CRWV CFO's September 11 RSU settlement reinforces the limitation of the lagged July 31 share snapshot; do not selectively add one award without a complete share bridge. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-16)
28. September 15 mechanical peer-relative refresh: synchronized 20:00:01Z quotes IREN $41.58 and CRWV $80.92 times latest reported 394.058648M and 551.536602M economic shares give $16384.958584M/$44630.341834M equity values. Preserve $4B/$19B exit-2026 ARR, equal weighting, BRUN $400M base ARR, 83.845141M shares and $131.6487455M historical warrant proceeds. New CoreWeave Forms 144 concern previously held founder/conversion shares and do not establish new aggregate issuance. No new BRUN catalyst verified for its 6.86% fall; operating forecasts unchanged. Reporting-lag and full peer/deployment monitoring limitations remain. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-15)
29. September 15 reference BRUN share price $13.57; provider quote update 2026-09-15T15:01:40.327086-06:00. Stock-price movement alone does not change the operating forecast. (accessed 2026-09-15)
30. IREN latest annual filing confirms 394,058,648 ordinary economic shares at August 14; B Class voting shares are not counted as additional ordinary economic equity. This is a reported snapshot, not a live share register. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-15)
31. Mechanical September 14 relative valuation: IREN $43.17 at 20:00:00Z times 394.058648M reported shares; CRWV $82.98 at 20:00:01Z times 551.536602M Class A+B shares. One-second quote difference and August 14/July 31 share-reporting lags are disclosed. Preserve $4B/$19B exit ARR anchors, equal peer weighting, BRUN $400M base ARR, 83.845141M shares and $131.6487455M historical warrant cash. No operating forecast change. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-14)
32. September 14 Modeledge reference BRUN share price $14.57 retrieved after the regular U.S. close. Quote updates affect market-relative outputs; forecast changes, if any, are separately identified. (accessed 2026-09-14)
33. September 11 Modeledge reference share price $16.63. Relative valuation uses the separate synchronized peer quotes stated below. (accessed 2026-09-11)
34. Mechanical September 11 peer-relative refresh: synchronized 20:00:01Z prices IREN $43.83 and CRWV $88.99 times unchanged reported 394.058648M and 551.536602M economic shares. Preserve $4B/$19B exit-2026 ARR denominators, equal peer weighting, BRUN $400M ARR, 83.845141M shares and $131.6487455M aggregate historical warrant cash. This reprices the existing relative method without changing operating forecasts. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-11)
35. September 10 Modeledge reference share price $16.46; market price alone is not used to revise operating forecasts. (accessed 2026-09-10)
36. Mechanical refresh of the existing peer-relative method using synchronized September 10 20:00:01Z prices: IREN $43.64 times 394.058648M reported economic shares; CRWV $89.12 times 551.536602M reported Class A+B shares. Keep $4B/$19B exit ARR anchors, equal base weighting, $400M BRUN ARR and 83.845141M BRUN shares. This changes relative market valuation, not operating forecasts or an intrinsic-value judgment. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-10)
37. Boost Run's June 2026 investor update headlines FY2026E ARR of $400M+ and shows a detailed December 2026 ARR bridge of $375M+. — boostrun.com (accessed 2026-07-30)
38. Boost Run reported 76.410M shares issued and outstanding as of July 2, 2026, including Class A and Class B shares. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-07-30)
39. Boost Run had received $58.8M from warrant exercises by July 24 and could receive $131.9M in total if all remaining warrants are exercised before redemption. — investors.boostrun.com (accessed 2026-07-30)
40. IREN targets more than $4B of year-end 2026 AI Cloud ARR; synchronized August 26 market capitalization was $14.124B. — iren.gcs-web.com (accessed 2026-07-30)
41. CoreWeave guided to $18B-$19B ARR exiting 2026; synchronized August 26 market capitalization was $48.016B. — investors.coreweave.com (accessed 2026-07-30)
42. Boost Run contracted with Thinking Machines Lab for 5,000 NVIDIA B300 GPUs over 36 months for approximately $471.7M. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-07-30)
43. Boost Run listed six online sites, two Q3 2026 sites, 33MW locked capacity, and 125MW under LOI in its June investor update. — boostrun.com (accessed 2026-07-30)
44. August 26 completed redemption: 11,447,717 warrants exercised at $11.50 implies $131.6487455M aggregate gross proceeds; 22,994 expired warrants were redeemed for $229.94. August 25 Class A plus Class B issued shares total 83.845141M. These figures supersede the fully-exercised forecast. — boostrun.gcs-web.com (accessed 2026-09-09)
45. Q2 2026 reported revenue $31.1M, $1.9B total contract value and maintained $400M year-end ARR. Q2 notes show earnouts and the 336,000 consultant shares were already issued/vested; do not add them again. Financing and commissioning remain execution risks. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-09)
46. IREN's August 27 release targets $4B operational ARR by December 31 with $1B already operating. Retain $4B peer denominator; contracts still require commissioning, testing and customer acceptance. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-09)
47. CoreWeave August 11 updated exit-2026 ARR guidance to $18.5B-$19.5B; use the $19B midpoint. — s205.q4cdn.com (accessed 2026-09-09)
48. Peer equity estimates use September 9 20:00:01 UTC quotes: IREN $45.3561 times 394.058648M August 14 issued ordinary shares = $17,872.9634446M; the two non-economic B Class voting shares are excluded. Ongoing ATM issuance after the reporting date is unknown. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-09)
49. CoreWeave $94.94 September 9 20:00:01 UTC quote times July 31 Class A 458.871690M plus Class B 92.664912M shares gives the peer equity estimate. Both share classes have equivalent per-share economic participation; later unreported issuance is unknown. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-09)