IREN contracted cloud and infrastructure SOTP valuation

Iris Energy Ltd (IREN)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-08-04
USD
Updated Aug 4, 2026 · Revised 1 time
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IREN contracted cloud and infrastructure SOTP valuation

as of 2026-08-04

Blended fair value per share
$38.93
Upside or downside
-6.0%
Blended equity value
$15.6
Intrinsic SOTP fair value per share
$36.12
EV to ARR peer cross-check per share
$45.48
Normalized AI Cloud NOPAT
$0.53
Intrinsic operating enterprise value
$11.6
Probability weighted exit ARR
$3.9
Scenario fully diluted shares
400.0

Capital structure

$7.6$B
$10.3$B

Contracted cloud

$3.4$B
75%
$0.6$B

Market and dilution

$41.43$/share
400.0million shares

Peer cross-check

$18.5$B
$49.7$B
$33.0$B
$8.0$B
$54.1$B
-$5.0$B
25%
0%

SOTP

$0.5$B
$3.5$B
$0.6$B
$1.0$B

Unit economics

$0.30$B
$0.10$B
3
5.5years
82%

Valuation

70%
22
20%

Sources

  1. IREN disclosed more than $4 billion of 2026 exit ARR target with approximately 85% contracted and approximately 45% customer prepayments on associated GPU capex. — irisenergy.gcs-web.com
  2. IREN's Microsoft contract is $9.7 billion over approximately five years with approximately 85% estimated project EBITDA margin and $5.81 billion of GPU and ancillary capex. — iren.gcs-web.com
  3. IREN reported 357.38 million shares at April 30, 2026 and disclosed outstanding RSUs, options, converts and pending acquisition consideration. — sec.gov
  4. IREN granted 18.20 million RSUs combined to its co-founder CEOs effective July 2026. — sec.gov
  5. IREN closed $3.65 billion of Microsoft project GPU financing at a stated 3.31% blended financing cost including customer prepayment funding. — iren.gcs-web.com
  6. IREN issued $3.0 billion of 2033 convertible notes in May 2026 with capped calls initially covering dilution through $110.30. — iren.gcs-web.com
  7. CoreWeave guided to $18 billion to $19 billion of 2026 exit annualized revenue. — s205.q4cdn.com
  8. Nebius guided to $7 billion to $9 billion of 2026 exit ARR. — assets.nebius.com
  9. IREN, CoreWeave and Nebius prices and market capitalizations were observed from market data on August 4, 2026.

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