IREN contracted cloud and infrastructure SOTP valuation

IREN Limited (IREN)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-10-07
USD
Updated Oct 7, 2026 · Revised 5 times
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IREN contracted cloud and infrastructure SOTP valuation

September FY26 refresh of the existing 70% normalized-NOPAT SOTP / 30% peer EV/ARR blend. $4B contracted ARR includes only $1B operating; base weights the remaining $3B at 95%. Retains 22x base NOPAT, 5.5-year GPU economic life and $3.5B net 2027 equity option. Updates unrestricted cash, fully drawn committed GPU financing, overhead and award reserve. This is a forward deployment valuation, not a forecast of September cash/debt. Terminal economic dilution is calculated piecewise for options, NVIDIA rights and convertible premiums beyond capped-call protection; convert principal stays in debt. Capped calls assume remaining proportional coverage; no option time value is included.

as of 2026-10-07

Blended fair value per share
$20.25
Upside or downside
-47.7%
Blended equity value
$8.8
Intrinsic SOTP fair value per share before contingent dilution
$13.23
EV to ARR peer cross-check per share before contingent dilution
$36.70
Normalized AI Cloud NOPAT
$0.35
Intrinsic operating enterprise value
$7.7
Probability weighted exit ARR
$3.9
Economic equivalent diluted shares
435.7
Fully drawn deployment debt and leases ($B)
$13.46
Restricted cash excluded ($B)
$1.72

Capital structure

$5.9$B
0.95
$13.5$B
1.00

Contracted cloud

$4.0$B
75%
$0.0$B

Market and dilution

$38.69$/share
Latest IREN quote · updated Oct 7, 2026 2:00 PM MDT
435.0million shares

Peer cross-check

$18.5$B
$48.8$B
$46.1$B
$8.0$B
$54.3$B
$0.5$B
25%
0%

SOTP

$0.5$B
$3.5$B
$0.6$B
$1.0$B

Unit economics

$0.52$B
$0.10$B
3
5.5years
82%

Valuation

70%
22
20%

Sources

  1. October 7 Model Edge reference IREN quote $38.69, refreshed 2026-10-07T15:03:03.418681-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this price; valuation changes are separately explained. (accessed 2026-10-07)
  2. October 7 price -6.27%. Financial media reports broad AI infrastructure weakness/profit-taking, but no new issuer guidance cut or specific material event was verified. Preserve the existing70%intrinsic/30%peer method and $20.245448; do not mechanically substitute inconsistent provider peer market caps while full economic-share, lease/debt and ARR reconciliation is open. Current-price input refreshed only. — benzinga.com (accessed 2026-10-07)
  3. September 28 Modeledge reference IREN stock price $41.72, retrieved 2026-09-28T16:46:37.502582-06:00; a post-session reference snapshot, not an asserted official close. Operating assumptions are unchanged except separately documented updates. (accessed 2026-09-28)
  4. September 28: investigated the 5.45% decline. Preserve 70% intrinsic / 30% peer-adjusted EV/ARR methodology and existing fair value. Fresh CRWV/NBIS provider caps ($46.411672907B/$55.6512B, provider-dated September 28 00:00Z) were retrieved, but full share-class/dilution bases are not reconciled. Do not insert inconsistent peer caps or infer operating impairment from the quote. — streetinsider.com (accessed 2026-09-28)
  5. IREN disclosed more than $4 billion of 2026 exit ARR target with approximately 85% contracted and approximately 45% customer prepayments on associated GPU capex. — irisenergy.gcs-web.com
  6. IREN's Microsoft contract is $9.7 billion over approximately five years with approximately 85% estimated project EBITDA margin and $5.81 billion of GPU and ancillary capex. — iren.gcs-web.com
  7. IREN reported 357.38 million shares at April 30, 2026 and disclosed outstanding RSUs, options, converts and pending acquisition consideration. — sec.gov
  8. IREN granted 18.20 million RSUs combined to its co-founder CEOs effective July 2026. — sec.gov
  9. IREN closed $3.65 billion of Microsoft project GPU financing at a stated 3.31% blended financing cost including customer prepayment funding. — iren.gcs-web.com
  10. IREN issued $3.0 billion of 2033 convertible notes in May 2026 with capped calls initially covering dilution through $110.30. — iren.gcs-web.com
  11. CoreWeave guided to $18 billion to $19 billion of 2026 exit annualized revenue. — s205.q4cdn.com
  12. Nebius guided to $7 billion to $9 billion of 2026 exit ARR. — assets.nebius.com
  13. IREN, CoreWeave and Nebius prices and market capitalizations were observed from market data on August 13, 2026.
  14. CoreWeave reported $35.07 billion of recourse and non-recourse debt, $16.54 billion of operating and finance lease liabilities, and $5.52 billion of cash at June 30, 2026. — sec.gov
  15. Nebius reported $8.04 billion of cash and $8.55 billion of current and non-current debt at June 30, 2026. — sec.gov
  16. FY26 10-K: June unrestricted cash $5.895591B; restricted cash $1.723936B; debt principal $7.705649B; finance leases $0.2438B; issued shares 394.058648M August 14. Convert strikes/capped-call thresholds and option grants support conditional dilution. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-07)
  17. August 27 FY26 update: $4B contracted ARR, $1B operating; $2.8B new GPU financing; FY27 cumulative capacity target 0.8GW. Q4 SG&A $128.3M less SBC $42.9M, with next-quarter cash SG&A step-up $40-50M, supports analyst $520M annual overhead. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-07)
  18. September 4 market-data snapshot: CoreWeave equity capitalization $48.7522B; Nebius $54.3336B. Latest available June balance sheets retained. (accessed 2026-09-07)

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