SanDisk blended earnings-power valuation

SanDisk Corporation (SNDK)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-09-08
USD
Updated Sep 8, 2026 · Revised 7 times
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SanDisk blended earnings-power valuation

Forward non-GAAP P/E valuation refreshed after Sandisk In Focus 2026 Investor Day. Fiscal Q4 2026 results remain the reported earnings anchor, while Investor Day targets for FY2028-FY2030 revenue growth, roughly 80% non-GAAP gross margin, roughly 50% adjusted FCF margin, broader NBM coverage, and return of excess cash raise the durability credit without treating current peak EPS as fully normalized.

as of 2026-09-08

Fair value
$1640.95
Upside/downside
-5.6%
Blended earnings-power EPS
$89.90
Through-cycle EPS
$35.00
Annualized Q4 peak EPS
$157.00
FY2026 non-GAAP EPS
$70.88
Adjusted net cash per share
$22.75
Earnings-power value
$1618.20
Implied equity value
$257.6
Implied enterprise value
$254.1
P/E on annualized Q4 peak EPS
10.9
P/E on through-cycle EPS
49.0
FY2028 NBM bit coverage
67%
Investor Day long-term gross margin
80%

Capital structure

75%
157.00M shares

Earnings power

39.25$/share
45%
35.00$/share

Market

1,737.99$/share
Latest SNDK quote · updated Sep 8, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Valuation

18.00x

Sources

  1. Fiscal Q4 revenue was $8.965B, non-GAAP gross margin was 84.6%, non-GAAP EPS was $39.25, FY2026 non-GAAP EPS was $70.88, adjusted FCF was $5.035B, diluted shares were 157M, and fiscal Q1 2027 EPS guidance was $44-$46. — investor.sandisk.com (accessed 2026-08-14)
  2. At Sandisk In Focus 2026 Investor Day, management targeted mid-to-high-teens FY2028-FY2030 revenue growth, about 80% non-GAAP gross margin, about 75% non-GAAP operating margin, about 50% adjusted FCF margin, NBMs covering about 50% of FY2027 bits and about two-thirds of FY2028 bits, and returning 100% of excess cash after business investment. — investor.sandisk.com (accessed 2026-08-14)
  3. Investor Day technology commentary emphasized AI inference/KV-cache demand, BiCS10 QLC density and efficiency gains, and qualification/shipping of TLC ESSD and QLC SSD products at major hyperscalers, customers, and OEMs. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-08-14)
  4. September 8 conference reiterated NBM coverage of 50% of FY2027 bits and about two-thirds of FY2028 bits, mid-to-high teens bit growth through node transitions without wafer additions, and return of excess cash. Management described $4.5B of prior-quarter repurchases; no new diluted share count was given. HBF revenue and incremental capital spending remain unquantified. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-08)

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