SanDisk blended earnings-power valuation

SanDisk Corporation (SNDK)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-10-22
USD
Updated Oct 22, 2026 · Revised 12 times
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SanDisk blended earnings-power valuation

Forward non-GAAP P/E valuation refreshed after Sandisk In Focus 2026 Investor Day. Fiscal Q4 2026 results remain the reported earnings anchor, while Investor Day targets for FY2028-FY2030 revenue growth, roughly 80% non-GAAP gross margin, roughly 50% adjusted FCF margin, broader NBM coverage, and return of excess cash raise the durability credit without treating current peak EPS as fully normalized.

as of 2026-10-22

Fair value
$1640.95
Upside/downside
32.5%
Blended earnings-power EPS
$89.90
Through-cycle EPS
$35.00
Annualized Q4 peak EPS
$157.00
FY2026 non-GAAP EPS
$70.88
Adjusted net cash per share
$22.75
Earnings-power value
$1618.20
Implied equity value
$257.6
Implied enterprise value
$254.1
P/E on annualized Q4 peak EPS
7.7
P/E on through-cycle EPS
34.7
FY2028 NBM bit coverage
67%
Investor Day long-term gross margin
80%

Capital structure

75%
157.00M shares

Earnings power

39.25$/share
45%
35.00$/share

Market

1,238.03$/share
Latest SNDK quote · updated Oct 23, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Valuation

18.00x

Sources

  1. October 22: investigated -8.51% daily move through indexed issuer activity, release discovery and web searches. No newly verified quantified issuer change supports altering the existing operating assumptions. Preserve methodology and financial anchors; update regular-session reference price and market-relative outputs. Exact company-specific price attribution remains unconfirmed. (accessed 2026-10-22)
  2. Regular-session reference $1260.93 retrieved 2026-10-22T15:22:04.958005-06:00. Quote updates alone do not change operating assumptions. (accessed 2026-10-22)
  3. October 19 Model Edge reference SNDK price $1370.59; provider/refresh timestamp 2026-10-19T15:24:45.544141-06:00. Retrieval timestamps are not trade timestamps or asserted official closing prints. Financial anchors retain their separately disclosed dates. (accessed 2026-10-19)
  4. October 19, 2026: Investigated the 5.49% rise. Storage-sector rebound reporting supplies market context but no verified new Sandisk guidance. Preserve $35 through-cycle non-GAAP EPS, 45% structural persistence, 18x and 75% cash recognition; do not capitalize the price movement as operating growth. Refresh reference price in both linked portfolios. — wallstreetobserver.com (accessed 2026-10-19)
  5. October 16 Model Edge regular-session SNDK reference $1299.3, refreshed 2026-10-16T15:05:08.040908-06:00. Retrieval time is not trade time. Scope and separate financial-anchor changes are described in refresh context. (accessed 2026-10-16)
  6. October 12 Model Edge regular-session reference SNDK price $1487.33, refreshed 2026-10-12T15:02:21.877272-06:00. Price refresh changes market-relative outputs; BRUN separately reprices its existing relative valuation. (accessed 2026-10-12)
  7. Primary September 30 research projects NAND contract prices up 15-20% in 4Q26 and enterprise SSD price acceleration; segment/contract evidence differs from generalized stock-market commentary. — trendforce.com (accessed 2026-10-12)
  8. Secondary report on CXMT's planned server-DRAM roadmap; original presentation, yields, qualifications and volume economics remain unverified. — en.sedaily.com (accessed 2026-10-12)
  9. Fiscal Q4 revenue was $8.965B, non-GAAP gross margin was 84.6%, non-GAAP EPS was $39.25, FY2026 non-GAAP EPS was $70.88, adjusted FCF was $5.035B, diluted shares were 157M, and fiscal Q1 2027 EPS guidance was $44-$46. — investor.sandisk.com (accessed 2026-08-14)
  10. At Sandisk In Focus 2026 Investor Day, management targeted mid-to-high-teens FY2028-FY2030 revenue growth, about 80% non-GAAP gross margin, about 75% non-GAAP operating margin, about 50% adjusted FCF margin, NBMs covering about 50% of FY2027 bits and about two-thirds of FY2028 bits, and returning 100% of excess cash after business investment. — investor.sandisk.com (accessed 2026-08-14)
  11. Investor Day technology commentary emphasized AI inference/KV-cache demand, BiCS10 QLC density and efficiency gains, and qualification/shipping of TLC ESSD and QLC SSD products at major hyperscalers, customers, and OEMs. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-08-14)
  12. September 8 conference reiterated NBM coverage of 50% of FY2027 bits and about two-thirds of FY2028 bits, mid-to-high teens bit growth through node transitions without wafer additions, and return of excess cash. Management described $4.5B of prior-quarter repurchases; no new diluted share count was given. HBF revenue and incremental capital spending remain unquantified. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-08)
  13. September 9 Citi conference reiterated eight NBM partners, roughly two-thirds FY2028 bit coverage and the Investor Day margin framework. HBF sampling is planned for next year; no new quantified earnings or executed share-count disclosure changes the existing blended earnings model. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-09)

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