JBHT FCFE DCF valuation

JBHT FCFE DCF valuation

as of 2026-09-16

Normalized FCFE
$975
Implied equity value
$18,194
Fair value per share
$191.63
Upside / downside to current price
-17.5%

Cash flow

5.5%
$975
2.5%

Discount rate

8.8%

Market

$232.16
Latest JBHT quote · updated Oct 14, 2026 2:00 PM MDT
94.9

Sources

  1. September 16 reference JBHT price $236.73; quote update 2026-09-16T15:00:38.923212-06:00. Current price updates market-relative outputs; operating assumption changes are separately sourced. (accessed 2026-09-16)
  2. Q2 10-Q: diluted weighted-average shares 94.944M; H1 operating cash flow $723.266M and net capital expenditures $144.947M. Use weighted dilution and normalized maintenance capex rather than basic shares or annualizing H1 FCF. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-16)
  3. September 15 conference: Q3 earnings expected 5-10% below Q2, with driver-related costs about $25M higher sequentially, fuel at least $10M higher, and claims/medical pressure. Pricing recovery lags costs; no permanent revenue-growth cut assumed. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-16)
  4. August 11 conference: CFO estimates approximately $700M net maintenance capex. Model judgment reduces prior scenario FCFE by the $125M difference versus FY2025 net capex; growth and discount rates are preserved. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-16)
  5. FY2025 total operating revenues were $11.999B, operating income was $865M, net earnings were $598M, and diluted EPS was $6.12. — sec.gov
  6. FY2025 operating cash flow was $1.678B and net capital expenditures were about $575M, implying roughly $1.10B of free cash flow to equity before buybacks and dividends. — sec.gov
  7. Q2 2026 revenue was $3.50B, operating income was $259.5M, diluted EPS was $1.91, and all three increased year over year. — sec.gov
  8. For the six months ended June 30, 2026, revenue was $6.552B, operating income was $466.5M, diluted EPS was $3.39, and net capital expenditures were about $144.9M. — sec.gov
  9. At June 30, 2026, debt was about $1.15B, cash was about $4.2M, actual shares outstanding were about 93.9M, and remaining repurchase authorization was about $791M. — sec.gov
  10. Management's Q2 2026 call commentary emphasized tightening industry capacity, disciplined growth, cost control, and more than $135M of structural costs removed over the prior year. — investor.jbhunt.com

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