Aspen Aerogels operating DCF valuation

Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-09-24
USD
Updated Sep 24, 2026 · Revised 4 times
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Aspen Aerogels operating DCF valuation

Five-year operating DCF updated for Q2 2026. The 2026 revenue base remains $235M after Q2 revenue exceeded prior expectations and Q3 guidance moved to $65M-$80M with positive adjusted EBITDA. Q2 10-Q and transcript evidence support the same recovery path, with European thermal-barrier momentum and customer concentration still important execution risks.

as of 2026-09-24

Fair value
$8.99
Upside / downside
59.2%
Enterprise value
$695.6
FY2030E adjusted EBITDA
$108.0

Cash flow

21.0%
3.0%
FY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030E
Capital expenditures$M

Market data

$5.65
Latest ASPN quote · updated Oct 9, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Operating

FY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030E
Adjusted EBITDA margin
Revenue$M

Valuation

12.0%
10.00

Operating DCF bridge ($M)

FY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030E
Revenue235300380460540
Adjusted EBITDA0305783108
Cash taxes06121723
Capex1012151820
Working capital investment02222
Free cash flow-1010284563

Fair value sensitivity

Terminal EBITDA multiple10.0%11.0%12.0%13.0%14.0%
7.00$7.35$7.06$6.78$6.52$6.27
8.50$8.56$8.21$7.89$7.58$7.28
10.00$9.77$9.37$8.99$8.64$8.30
11.50$10.98$10.53$10.10$9.70$9.31
13.00$12.20$11.69$11.21$10.75$10.32

Sources

  1. September 24: shares fell 6.69%; no new quantified adverse company disclosure or exact catalyst was verified. Preserve the existing FCF DCF and September 15 operating assumptions. European program revenue, award potential and the 2027 breakeven target remain distinct from firm orders or near-term guidance. The Statesboro sale is not closed, so expected proceeds are not cash. Keep the user's historical EV/sales instructions and the documented methodology conflict visible; do not silently switch methods. (accessed 2026-09-24)
  2. September 24 reference ASPN price $5.3; quote refresh timestamp 2026-09-24T15:15:28.035388-06:00. This changes market-relative outputs; price alone does not change operating assumptions. (accessed 2026-09-24)
  3. September 15 deck and August 11 conference keep Q3 guidance at $65M-$80M revenue and $7M-$15M adjusted EBITDA; Europe $20M-$30M in 2026 and $40M-$60M target in 2027. The $135M awarded potential is not guidance. Management now targets $200M EBITDA-breakeven revenue in H2 2026 and $175M by end-2027, superseding the historical $245M monitoring threshold. East Providence full restoration remains H1 2027; Statesboro sale agreement expired, bidding reopened, approximately $25M net proceeds intended for MidCap debt may slip into 2027. Do not book pending sale proceeds or uncollected insurance as new cash. Existing recovery DCF retained; current_price migrated from constant to scalar input at $4.86. August 13 13G/A is an investment-manager ownership disclosure, not dilution. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-15)
  4. September 15 reference ASPN share price $4.86; provider quote update 2026-09-15T15:01:38.86299-06:00. Stock-price movement alone does not change the operating forecast. (accessed 2026-09-15)
  5. Q2 earnings release reported revenue of $49.8M, adjusted EBITDA of negative $6.6M, Q3 guidance of $65M-$80M revenue and $7M-$15M adjusted EBITDA, and cash plus restricted cash of $153.4M. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-11)
  6. Q2 2026 Form 10-Q reported $49.849M revenue, $20.372M Energy Industrial revenue, $29.477M Thermal Barrier revenue, $151.708M cash and cash equivalents, and 82,988,784 shares outstanding as of August 4, 2026. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-11)

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