Five-year operating DCF updated for Q2 2026. The 2026 revenue base remains $235M after Q2 revenue exceeded prior expectations and Q3 guidance moved to $65M-$80M with positive adjusted EBITDA. Q2 10-Q and transcript evidence support the same recovery path, with European thermal-barrier momentum and customer concentration still important execution risks.
as of 2026-08-11
Fair value
$8.99
Upside / downside
43.0%
Enterprise value
$695.6
FY2030E adjusted EBITDA
$108.0
Cash flow
21.0%
3.0%
FY2026E
FY2027E
FY2028E
FY2029E
FY2030E
Capital expenditures$M
Operating
FY2026E
FY2027E
FY2028E
FY2029E
FY2030E
Adjusted EBITDA margin
Revenue$M
Valuation
12.0%
10.00
Operating DCF bridge ($M)
FY2026E
FY2027E
FY2028E
FY2029E
FY2030E
Revenue
235
300
380
460
540
Adjusted EBITDA
0
30
57
83
108
Cash taxes
0
6
12
17
23
Capex
10
12
15
18
20
Working capital investment
0
2
2
2
2
Free cash flow
-10
10
28
45
63
Fair value sensitivity
Terminal EBITDA multiple
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
7.00
$7.35
$7.06
$6.78
$6.52
$6.27
8.50
$8.56
$8.21
$7.89
$7.58
$7.28
10.00
$9.77
$9.37
$8.99
$8.64
$8.30
11.50
$10.98
$10.53
$10.10
$9.70
$9.31
13.00
$12.20
$11.69
$11.21
$10.75
$10.32
Sources
Q2 earnings release reported revenue of $49.8M, adjusted EBITDA of negative $6.6M, Q3 guidance of $65M-$80M revenue and $7M-$15M adjusted EBITDA, and cash plus restricted cash of $153.4M. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-11)
Q2 2026 Form 10-Q reported $49.849M revenue, $20.372M Energy Industrial revenue, $29.477M Thermal Barrier revenue, $151.708M cash and cash equivalents, and 82,988,784 shares outstanding as of August 4, 2026. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-11)
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