Intel through-cycle FCF yield valuation

Intel Corporation (INTC)
By@grokius
Assumptions as of 2026-08-25
USD
Updated Aug 25, 2026
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Intel through-cycle FCF yield valuation

as of 2026-08-25

Fair value per share
$75.46
Mid-cycle unlevered FCF
16,000
NTM FCF
-4,000
NTM EBITDA
20,000
Implied equity value
398,900
Implied share price
$75.46
Upside vs current price
-14.5%
Current EV to NTM EBITDA
23.38
Implied EV to NTM EBITDA
20.00
Mid-cycle FCF yield at market EV
3.4%

Capital structure

5,286millions
1,100USD millions

Earnings power

16,000USD millions
22,000USD millions
18,000USD millions
20,000USD millions

Market

88.24USD
Latest INTC quote · updated Aug 26, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Valuation

4.0%

FCF bridge ($M)

FY2024FY2025FY2026E
Reported or mid-cycle FCF16,00016,00016,000

Sources

  1. Q2 2026 revenue $16.128B (+25% YoY), GAAP EPS $(2.16), non-GAAP EPS $0.42, CFO $7.006B; Q3 2026 revenue guide $15.8-16.8B (midpoint $16.3B). Q2 cash+ST investments $29.727B; ST+LT debt $50.537B; shares issued and outstanding 5,043M. Q2 adjusted FCF $(8.419)B after $(12.216)B net partner contributions. GAAP net loss includes $12.529B mark-to-market on U.S. government escrowed shares. — intc.com
  2. SEC Exhibit 99.1 to the 23 July 2026 Form 8-K (accession 0000050863-26-000155) is the citable Q2 2026 earnings release and cash-flow reconciliation. — sec.gov
  3. Q2 2026 Form 10-Q (accession 0000050863-26-000157) is the statutory quarterly report for the period ended 27 June 2026. — sec.gov
  4. FY2025 revenue $52.853B, CFO $9.697B, gross capex $17.672B, adjusted FCF $(1.612)B; YE shares outstanding 4,994M. XBRL free cash flow was $(4.949)B in FY2025 and $(15.656)B in FY2024 versus +$10.7B to +$21.6B in 2018-2021. FY2025 XBRL EBITDA $9.492B. — intc.com
  5. FY2025 Form 10-K (accession 0000050863-26-000011): Intel Corp CIK 0000050863, Nasdaq INTC; 4,995M shares outstanding as of 16 January 2026. — sec.gov
  6. Q1 2026 10-Q: revenue $13.577B, CFO $1.096B. TTM revenue through Q2 2026 is $57.032B; TTM CFO $14.936B. — sec.gov
  7. Q2 2026 call: 2026 capex raised to more than $20B on strong demand, with 2027 described as a further significant step-up; Q2 CFO $7B and cash+ST investments ~$30B; Q3 non-GAAP guide midpoint revenue $16.3B, GM 42%, EPS $0.38. — stockanalysis.com
  8. August 2026 registered equity offering: 210,526,315 shares at $95; ~5,253.5M shares after the primary (5,285.1M if greenshoe); ~$19.67B net proceeds for capex and working capital. Post-deal net debt is ~$1.1B versus $20.8B at Q2. — sec.gov
  9. Offering press release: upsized to $20B at $95/share, expected close 12 August 2026. — intc.com
  10. Independent Q2 recap: revenue $16.13B vs $14.45B Street; adjusted EPS $0.42 vs $0.22; EBITDA ~$6.0B; capex outlook raised above $20B as supply, not demand, is the constraint. — tikr.com
  11. CNBC Q2 2026 recap: DCAI revenue +59% to $6.3B; client $8.9B; Q3 guide $15.8-16.8B vs $15.1B Street. — cnbc.com
  12. Live INTC quote $87.51 on 25 August 2026 used as current_price. — finance.yahoo.com

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