Airbnb NTM FCF yield valuation

Airbnb (ABNB)
By@grokius
Assumptions as of 2026-09-10
USD
Updated Sep 10, 2026
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Airbnb NTM FCF yield valuation

Enterprise FCF-yield valuation for Airbnb, Inc. (Nasdaq: ABNB), the global online stays / experiences / services marketplace. No prior Modeledge ABNB finmodels or public research artifacts existed (ListFinModels empty; modeledge.ai/company/ABNB/research confirmed none). Primary basis is NTM free cash flow capitalized at a target EV FCF yield, then add corporate net cash and divide by diluted shares — the natural lens for an asset-light, high-FCF-conversion platform with ongoing buybacks. Forward P/E and Adj. EBITDA are cross-checks only. Grounded in Q2 2026 results (ended Jun 30), FY2025 10-K, Modeledge quote/market cap, and Street consensus as of 2026-09-10.

as of 2026-09-10

Fair value per share
$180.27
Upside vs current price
8.7%
Implied equity value
113.6
NTM free cash flow
5.20
TTM free cash flow
4.83
TTM Adjusted EBITDA
4.66
Fair enterprise value
104.0
Market EV FCF yield on NTM FCF
5.5%
Market EV / NTM FCF
18.3
Market EV / TTM Adj. EBITDA
20.4

Capital structure

630.0M
9.57$B

Cash flow

5.20$B

Market

$165.87$/sh
Latest ABNB quote · updated Oct 9, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Reported anchors

4.66$B
4.83$B

Valuation

5.0%

Sources

  1. Q2 2026: revenue $3.6B (+17%); GBV $27.2B (+16%); nights/seats booked 148.3M (+10%); net income $816M (23% margin); Adj. EBITDA $1.3B (35% margin, +21%); FCF $1.3B (35% margin); TTM FCF $4.8B (37% margin); take rate 13.2% flat YoY. Raised FY2026 outlook to at least mid-teens revenue growth and ≥35.5% Adj. EBITDA margin. Q3 revenue guide $4.69-$4.77B. — news.airbnb.com
  2. Q2 2026 shareholder letter / 8-K: $1.1B Class A buybacks in quarter; ~590M common + ~44M SBC awards = ~634M fully diluted at Jun 30, 2026 (down from 652M/673M); $12.1B cash+STI+restricted corporate and $12.2B guest funds; $3.4B repurchase authorization remaining; RNPL >20% of GBV deferring cash/unearned fees. — s26.q4cdn.com
  3. Form 10-Q quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 (accession 0001559720-26-000027): cash $6.821B, STI $5.248B, Senior Notes $2.5B ($2.476B net); FCF $1.253B in Q2; 7.9M shares repurchased for $1.066B in Q2 / 16.0M YTD for $2.139B. — sec.gov
  4. FY2025 10-K: revenue $12.241B; net income $2.511B; Adj. EBITDA $4.297B (35%); FCF $4.613B (38%); GBV $91.273B; diluted WAS 623M; year-end shares outstanding 602M; cash+STI $11.014B before guest funds. — sec.gov
  5. Street (StockAnalysis / S&P Global as of early Sep 2026): ~46 analysts Buy consensus; avg 12-month PT ~$180.57 (range $125-$220); FY2026E revenue ~$14.16B (+15.7%), non-GAAP EPS ~$5.30, FCF ~$5.35B. — stockanalysis.com
  6. Market stats Sep 10, 2026: ~589.6M shares out; ~$9.57B net cash ($12.07B cash - $2.50B debt); TTM FCF ~$4.86B; EV/FCF ~18.6x; equity FCF yield ~4.9%; forward P/E ~30x. — stockanalysis.com
  7. Q2 2026 earnings call: AI-accelerated product velocity; hotel nights ~3x homes growth; support cost/booking -16% YoY; first-time bookers +11% (highest in four years); take rate flat on RNPL timing and new-business incentives. — fool.com

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