WIX AI-risk-adjusted FCF DCF

Wix.com Ltd (WIX)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-09-08
USD
Updated Sep 8, 2026 · Revised 6 times
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WIX AI-risk-adjusted FCF DCF

AI-risk-adjusted free cash flow DCF for Wix after Q2 2026 results. The model preserves the prior Q2 operating assumptions because the latest materials reaffirmed low-to-mid-teens revenue growth, low-teens bookings growth, high-teens adjusted FCF margin guidance, and improving Base44 unit economics. Current price was refreshed on August 8, 2026.

as of 2026-09-08

2030 normalized FCF
$660
Core equity value
$5,615
AI-risk-adjusted equity value
$4,941
Fair value / share
$118.07
Upside / downside
59.1%

AI risk

20.0%
40%

Balance sheet

$670$M

Cash flow

FY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030E
Free cash flow ex acquisition/restructuring$M

Market

$74.23
Latest WIX quote · updated Sep 9, 2026 2:00 PM MDT
41.8M

Valuation

11.5%
2.5%

Free cash flow forecast

FY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030E
FCF ex acquisition/restructuring$420$480$540$600$660

Sources

  1. Q2 2026 bookings grew 12% to $569.1M and revenue grew 15% to $563.1M; Wix reiterated low-teens bookings growth, low-to-mid-teens revenue growth, and high-teens free cash flow margin guidance for 2026. — wix.com (accessed 2026-08-08)
  2. Q2 2026 free cash flow was $52.6M, or $61.2M excluding restructuring costs, equal to 11% of revenue. — nasdaq.com (accessed 2026-08-08)
  3. Base1 lowered AI inference costs and management expects Base44 non-GAAP gross margin to reach approximately 60% in the second half of 2026, versus roughly zero entering the year. — wix.com (accessed 2026-08-08)
  4. Q2 2026 ended with approximately $960M of cash and cash equivalents and $1.63B of short- and long-term debt, implying approximately $670M of reported net debt. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-08-08)
  5. Q1 2026 reported $541M revenue, $585M bookings, Base44 at approximately $150M ARR, and 41.85M shares outstanding after the April tender. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-08-08)
  6. FY2025 20-F reported $1.993B revenue and $573M free cash flow. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-08-08)
  7. WIX current model price was refreshed to $60.20 on August 8, 2026 using Modeledge portfolio pricing; Nasdaq retained as a public quote reference. — nasdaq.com (accessed 2026-08-08)
  8. September 8 conference said Base44 gross margin was tracking the approximately 60% second-half target or slightly better. Annual renewal cohorts remain small until Q4, marketing reinvestment is undecided, and partner headwinds have neither improved nor deteriorated. No revised quantified FCF guidance. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-08)

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