Western Digital classic forward PEG valuation

Sources

1. October 6 Model Edge reference WDC quote $411.04, refreshed 2026-10-06T15:02:52.635647-06:00. Price changes refresh market-relative outputs; evidence-supported valuation changes are separately described. (accessed 2026-10-06)
2. October 6: price fell 6.93% to $411.04 alongside Seagate on reported Toshiba/TDK competitive supply concerns. This is a reported risk, not a verified WDC earnings revision or a doubling of HDD unit production. October 6 consensus check (dated October 5) still shows FY2027 EPS $15.76/$20.09/$23.50, EPS growth 96.59% and revenue growth 48.56%. Preserve PEG 1 and sustainable growth 12%/18%/25%; fair value $361.62 unchanged. — sg.finance.yahoo.com (accessed 2026-10-06)
3. Additional supporting source for the October 6 review; see the dated evidence note. — stockanalysis.com (accessed 2026-10-06)
4. October 5 Model Edge reference WDC price $441.64, refreshed 2026-10-05T15:03:37.039527-06:00. Price-only inputs refresh market-relative outputs; BRUN also refreshes its established peer-relative multiple. (accessed 2026-10-05)
5. October 5: reference price rebounded 6.34% to $441.64 after the October 2 Toshiba news. Toshiba describes nearly doubled storage-capacity output by FY2027 versus FY2025, not doubled HDD unit production. The October 5 dated consensus page still shows FY2027 EPS $15.76/$20.09/$23.50 and growth 96.59%, revenue growth 48.56%. Retain PEG 1 and sustainable growth 12%/18%/25%, base $361.62. New proxy and annual-report text could not be accessed through MCP or issuer/SEC web attempts; DEFA14A extraction was only a cover, not substantive proxy review. — toshiba.semicon-storage.com (accessed 2026-10-05)
6. Additional source for the October 5 review; see dated evidence note. — stockanalysis.com (accessed 2026-10-05)
7. Additional source for the October 5 review; see dated evidence note. — benzinga.com (accessed 2026-10-05)
8. October 2 Model Edge reference WDC quote $415.29, refreshed 2026-10-02T17:10:08.065513-06:00. Price alone is not evidence to change operating forecasts; BRUN separately refreshes the existing peer-relative valuation. (accessed 2026-10-02)
9. October 2: reference shares fell 10.22% to $415.29. Toshiba confirms first nearline-HDD shipment from its expanded Philippines line and aims to nearly double FY2027 annual production capacity versus FY2025 on a storage-capacity basis, not HDD unit count. Contemporary market reporting links this competitive-capacity news to the selloff; it does not quantify a WDC guidance cut. Rechecked FY2027 consensus EPS $20.09 (bear $15.76/bull $23.50), still unchanged on the available September-updated forecast page. Retain PEG 1, sustainable growth 12%/18%/25% and $361.62 base value. Do not capitalize FY2028 EPS as FY2027. — toshiba.semicon-storage.com (accessed 2026-10-02)
10. Additional supporting source for the October 2 WDC review; see the first dated evidence note. — stockanalysis.com (accessed 2026-10-02)
11. September 24: reviewed the full September 14 redemption-notice exhibit. The remaining $109.505M 3% 2028 notes are called for November 16; conversion election ends November 12. Principal is to settle in cash and any conversion premium may produce shares under the notice's terms. This is not a completed September redemption. Keep FY2027 adjusted EPS $20.09 and 18x base P/E; do not double count the previous $191M exchange or dilution embedded in EPS. Consensus freshness and the older capital/filing window remain open. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-24)
12. September 24 reference WDC price $450.31; quote refresh timestamp 2026-09-24T15:15:27.440304-06:00. This changes market-relative outputs; price alone does not change operating assumptions. (accessed 2026-09-24)
13. September 14 notice calls the remaining $109.505M 3% 2028 convertible principal for November 16; conversion election ends November 12. Principal cash settlement and potential premium shares remain future and price-dependent. Do not remove outstanding debt today or double count the earlier $191M exchange or dilution already embedded in EPS. No new earnings guidance; fair-value assumptions retained. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-14)
14. September 14 Modeledge reference WDC share price $426.94 retrieved after the regular U.S. close. Quote updates affect market-relative outputs; forecast changes, if any, are separately identified. (accessed 2026-09-14)
15. Fiscal 2026 revenue was $12.9B and non-GAAP EPS was $10.22. Fiscal Q1 2027 guidance calls for $4.1B revenue, 55%-56% gross margin, and $4.00 non-GAAP EPS on 388M diluted shares. — investor.wdc.com (accessed 2026-08-05)
16. On August 26, 2026, Western Digital agreed to exchange about $191M principal of 2028 converts for $192.7M cash plus shares equal to the remaining conversion value. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-26)
17. Western Digital guided fiscal Q4 2026 revenue to $3.65 billion plus or minus $0.1 billion and non-GAAP EPS to $3.25 plus or minus $0.15. — investor.wdc.com (accessed 2026-07-30)
18. S&P Global consensus shown by StockAnalysis estimates FY2027 revenue of $18.25 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $18.75, revenue growth of 41.75%, and EPS growth of 88.25%. — stockanalysis.com (accessed 2026-07-30)
19. Consensus observed September 9: FY2027 adjusted non-GAAP EPS $20.09 (low $15.76, high $23.50), EPS growth 96.59%, revenue $19.19B and revenue growth 48.56%. This supersedes the July consensus source above. Page labels last updated August 6 and last checked September 4; this is not asserted to be a September 9 estimate revision. Fair PEG 1.0 and 12%/18%/25% sustainable growth scenarios are unchanged. — stockanalysis.com (accessed 2026-09-09)
20. September 9 Citi conference discussed supply discipline, HAMR qualification and prospective long-term contracts without new quantified EPS guidance. Complete historical source review remains pending; latest reported/guided diluted shares are retained until capital-structure reconciliation is complete. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-09)