Fiserv FCF yield and adjusted EPS valuation

Fiserv, Inc. (FISV)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-09-28
USD
Updated Sep 28, 2026 · Revised 4 times
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Fiserv FCF yield and adjusted EPS valuation

Blended forward adjusted-EPS and FCF-yield valuation refreshed with Q2 2026 release and earnings-call context. FY2026 adjusted EPS is reset to the new $7.20-$7.40 guide, the later EPS path is moderated, and FCF conversion falls to 85%. Conservative 7.5x P/E and 12.5% FCF-yield assumptions reflect a second quarter that did not confirm the expected revenue trough.

as of 2026-09-28

Fair value
$56.92
Upside/downside
24.7%
2027E adjusted EPS
$8.00
2027E FCF/share
$6.80
Current 2026E FCF yield
13.6%
Implied equity value ($B)
$30.4

Cash Flow

85.0%

Earnings

FY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029E
Adjusted EPS path$/share

Market

$45.63$/share
Latest FISV quote · updated Oct 9, 2026 2:00 PM MDT
534million

Valuation

45.0%
12.5%
7.5x

Adjusted EPS to FCF/share bridge

FY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029E
Adjusted EPS$7.30$8.00$9.20$11.00
FCF/share$6.21$6.80$7.82$9.35

Fair value vs target FCF yield and P/E

Target FCF yield6.5 x7.5 x8.5 x9.5 x10.5 x
9.0%$64.96$68.56$72.16$75.76$79.36
10.5%$59.02$62.62$66.22$69.82$73.42
11.5%$55.92$59.52$63.12$66.72$70.32
13.0%$52.17$55.77$59.37$62.97$66.57
14.5%$49.19$52.79$56.39$59.99$63.59

Sources

  1. September 28 Modeledge reference FISV stock price $46.02, retrieved 2026-09-28T16:46:37.21854-06:00; a post-session reference snapshot, not an asserted official close. Operating assumptions are unchanged except separately documented updates. (accessed 2026-09-28)
  2. September 28 Reuters reports Jana urging $1.25B savings versus management's $500M Project Elevate target and a Palantir-led transformation. These are activist proposals, not adopted company guidance or realized cash flow. Preserve the current EPS path, 85% FCF conversion, 7.5x P/E and 12.5% FCF yield. — ca.investing.com (accessed 2026-09-28)
  3. September 11 Modeledge reference share price $51.58. The share quote changes market-relative outputs, not operating forecasts or intrinsic fair value. (accessed 2026-09-11)
  4. September 10 conference reaffirmed Q3 adjusted revenue down 1%-3% and Q4 mid-single-digit growth, without new EPS guidance. Project Elevate targets $500M savings and about 200bps margin benefit across years, backloaded toward 2029; do not capitalize it all in 2027. Deleveraging below 3x precedes material buybacks expected from H2 2027. August Form 4 is a director purchase of 10,000 shares, not issuer dilution. Investigated +5.42% daily move; retain existing EPS path, 85% FCF conversion, 12.5% yield and 7.5x P/E. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-11)
  5. Q2 organic revenue declined 5%, adjusted EPS was $1.84, and FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance was cut to $7.20-$7.40; first-half free cash flow was $1.36B. — storage.googleapis.com (accessed 2026-08-06)
  6. On the Q2 earnings call, management described Q2 results as in line with guidance, said second-half adjusted revenue should grow about 2% with Q3 down low-single digits and Q4 up mid-single digits, and called out incremental technology and cybersecurity investment as a margin headwind. — investors.fiserv.com (accessed 2026-08-11)

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