EQT conservative 2027 FCF yield valuation

EQT Corporation (EQT)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-07-22
USD
Updated Jul 22, 2026
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EQT conservative 2027 FCF yield valuation

as of 2026-07-22

Fair value per share
$60.00
Upside or downside
11.1%
Implied enterprise value
$43,243
Normalized free cash flow
$4,000
Current FCF to EV yield
10.1%
FCF haircut to analyst-implied estimate
5.9%
Disclosed LNG plus Blackline annual FCF
$60
Disclosed catalyst value per share
$1.03

Capital structure

629.0M shares
5,500$M

Cash flow

4,000$M

Long-dated catalysts

15$M
45$M

Market

$53.99$/share
Latest EQT quote · updated Aug 25, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Valuation

9.3%

Conservative FCF yield valuation bridge

FY2027E
Normalized FCF$4,000
Target FCF / EV yield9.3%
Implied enterprise value$43,243
Less current net debt$5,500
Implied equity value$37,743
Diluted shares629.0
Fair value per share$60.00
Original analyst NAV target$72.00

LNG and supply reality check

FY2027E
U.S. LNG capacity additions, 2025-2029 (Bcf/d)13.9
U.S. LNG exports, 2025 (Bcf/d)15.1
U.S. LNG exports, 2027E (Bcf/d)18.6
LNG export growth, 2025-202723.2%
Appalachia production growth, 2026-20270.8%
Permian production growth, 2026-20278.9%

Separately disclosed catalyst economics

FY2027E
2028 LNG FCF uplift$45
Blackline average annual FCF$15
Combined disclosed annual FCF$60
Illustrative value per share at target yield$1.03

Sources

  1. EQT reported Q2 2026 sales volume of 634 Bcfe, $666M capital expenditures, $330M FCF attributable to EQT, and $5.5B net debt. — prnewswire.com
  2. EQT disclosed a 0.5 MTPA LNG agreement beginning in 2028 with about $45M of 2028 FCF uplift at recent strip pricing, and Blackline average annual FCF of about $15M for 2027-2031. — prnewswire.com
  3. EQT projected about $3.5B of 2026 FCF attributable to EQT at recent strip pricing. — ir.eqt.com
  4. The user-supplied analyst excerpt values EQT at $72 using NAV and implies about $4.25B of 2027 normalized FCF from its stated 10.9% FCF/EV yield at the July 22 market enterprise value.
  5. EIA estimates 13.9 Bcf/d of U.S. LNG liquefaction-capacity additions during 2025-2029 if projects under construction begin as planned. — eia.gov
  6. EIA's July 2026 outlook forecasts 18.6 Bcf/d of U.S. LNG exports in 2027, nearly flat Appalachia production, and stronger Permian and Haynesville supply growth. — eia.gov
  7. Most 2026-2027 pipeline additions originate in Texas and are designed to move Permian supply toward Gulf Coast LNG terminals. — eia.gov
  8. Modeledge market data showed EQT at $52.99 on July 22, 2026. — modeledge.ai

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