EQT conservative 2027 FCF yield valuation

EQT Corporation (EQT)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-10-07
USD
Updated Oct 7, 2026 · Revised 2 times
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EQT conservative 2027 FCF yield valuation

as of 2026-10-07

Fair value per share
$60.00
Upside or downside
13.6%
Implied enterprise value
$43,243
Normalized free cash flow
$4,000
Current FCF to EV yield
10.3%
FCF haircut to analyst-implied estimate
5.9%
Disclosed LNG plus Blackline annual FCF
$60
Disclosed catalyst value per share
$1.03

Capital structure

629.0M shares
5,500$M

Cash flow

4,000$M

Long-dated catalysts

15$M
45$M

Market

$52.84$/share
Latest EQT quote · updated Oct 9, 2026 1:59 PM MDT

Valuation

9.3%

Conservative FCF yield valuation bridge

FY2027E
Normalized FCF$4,000
Target FCF / EV yield9.3%
Implied enterprise value$43,243
Less current net debt$5,500
Implied equity value$37,743
Diluted shares629.0
Fair value per share$60.00
Original analyst NAV target$72.00

LNG and supply reality check

FY2027E
U.S. LNG capacity additions, 2025-2029 (Bcf/d)13.9
U.S. LNG exports, 2025 (Bcf/d)15.1
U.S. LNG exports, 2027E (Bcf/d)18.6
LNG export growth, 2025-202723.2%
Appalachia production growth, 2026-20270.8%
Permian production growth, 2026-20277.5%

Separately disclosed catalyst economics

FY2027E
2028 LNG FCF uplift$45
Blackline average annual FCF$15
Combined disclosed annual FCF$60
Illustrative value per share at target yield$1.03

Sources

  1. October 7 Model Edge reference EQT quote $52.31, refreshed 2026-10-07T15:03:00.515095-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this price; valuation changes are separately explained. (accessed 2026-10-07)
  2. October 7 8-K establishes $3.5B unsecured commercial-paper capacity with maturities no longer than397 days and states NO NOTES issued as of the filing. Revolver support is not additive funded cash or extra debt; preserve $4B normalized FCF, 9.25% yield, $5.5B net debt and629.049M shares. No intrinsic change ($60.000482). US issuer filing identity confirmed; unrelated EQT AB transcripts remain excluded. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-07)
  3. September 16 reference EQT price $50.405; quote update 2026-09-16T15:00:38.593626-06:00. Current price updates market-relative outputs; operating assumption changes are separately sourced. (accessed 2026-09-16)
  4. September 16 -5.11% investigated; no new issuer guidance or definitive company-specific cause found. Keep $4B normalized 2027 FCF, 9.25% yield, $5.5B net debt and 629.049M shares. September EIA STEO has 2027 Henry Hub $3.28/MMBtu and 18.6Bcf/d LNG exports (headline rounds to 19); update only diagnostic Appalachia 2026/27 production to 37.2/37.5 and Permian 2027 to 31.5Bcf/d. Macro forecast is not EQT hedge-adjusted realized strip. Quote $50.405. ListTranscripts returned apparent EQT AB AGM/value-creation events; verify US issuer before use. Historical quarterly/hedge review remains incomplete. — eia.gov (accessed 2026-09-16)
  5. EQT reported Q2 2026 sales volume of 634 Bcfe, $666M capital expenditures, $330M FCF attributable to EQT, and $5.5B net debt. — prnewswire.com
  6. EQT disclosed a 0.5 MTPA LNG agreement beginning in 2028 with about $45M of 2028 FCF uplift at recent strip pricing, and Blackline average annual FCF of about $15M for 2027-2031. — prnewswire.com
  7. EQT projected about $3.5B of 2026 FCF attributable to EQT at recent strip pricing. — ir.eqt.com
  8. The user-supplied analyst excerpt values EQT at $72 using NAV and implies about $4.25B of 2027 normalized FCF from its stated 10.9% FCF/EV yield at the July 22 market enterprise value.
  9. EIA estimates 13.9 Bcf/d of U.S. LNG liquefaction-capacity additions during 2025-2029 if projects under construction begin as planned. — eia.gov
  10. EIA's July 2026 outlook forecasts 18.6 Bcf/d of U.S. LNG exports in 2027, nearly flat Appalachia production, and stronger Permian and Haynesville supply growth. — eia.gov
  11. Most 2026-2027 pipeline additions originate in Texas and are designed to move Permian supply toward Gulf Coast LNG terminals. — eia.gov
  12. Modeledge market data showed EQT at $52.99 on July 22, 2026. — modeledge.ai

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