Instacart owner FCF yield valuation

MapleBear Inc. (CART)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-09-15
USD
Updated Sep 15, 2026 · Revised 2 times
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Instacart owner FCF yield valuation

Values Instacart on forward owner free cash flow after deducting stock-based compensation and normalizing working-capital benefits, with excess net cash added to equity value.

as of 2026-09-15

Fair value per share
$60.98
Upside / downside
27.7%
Normalized owner FCF ($M)
725
Forward owner FCF ($M)
798
Implied equity value ($M)
15,185
Implied owner FCF multiple (x)
18.2

Balance sheet

685$M

Capitalization

249M shares

Market

$47.76
Latest CART quote · updated Oct 9, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Operating

-50$M
10.0%

Reported

1,176$M
401$M

Valuation

5.5%

Fair value sensitivity

Target owner FCF yield0.0%10.0%20.0%
4.5%$67.45$73.92$80.39
5.5%$55.69$60.98$66.28
6.5%$47.55$52.03$56.50
7.5%$41.57$45.46$49.34

Sources

  1. September 15: September 9 conference reaffirmed Q3 GTV midpoint growth of 14%, described Clementine AI, enterprise expansion and advertising momentum, and did not supply a new owner-FCF forecast. Retain TTM FCF $1,176M less $401M SBC and $50M normalization, 10% growth, 5.5% yield, $685M net cash and 249M diluted shares. Today's Form 144 proposes sale of 3,017 previously vested shares; it is not issuer financing. Investigated 5.40% decline without establishing a new company-specific catalyst. Older quarterly/ownership backlog remains. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-15)
  2. September 15 reference CART share price $46.81; provider quote update 2026-09-15T15:01:39.039827-06:00. Stock-price movement alone does not change the operating forecast. (accessed 2026-09-15)
  3. Q2 2026 GTV and revenue grew 14%, adjusted EBITDA grew 19%, FCF was $480M, H1 2026 FCF was $733M, H1 2026 stock-based compensation was $221M, diluted shares were 248.9M, and cash plus marketable securities were $885M. — storage.googleapis.com (accessed 2026-08-06)
  4. FY2025 free cash flow was $910M and stock-based compensation was $352M. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-06)
  5. CART closed at $45.03 on August 6, 2026. (accessed 2026-08-06)

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