Instacart owner FCF yield valuation

MapleBear Inc. (CART)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-08-06
USD
Updated Aug 6, 2026 · Revised 1 time
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Instacart owner FCF yield valuation

Values Instacart on forward owner free cash flow after deducting stock-based compensation and normalizing working-capital benefits, with excess net cash added to equity value.

as of 2026-08-06

Fair value per share
$60.98
Upside / downside
23.5%
Normalized owner FCF ($M)
725
Forward owner FCF ($M)
798
Implied equity value ($M)
15,185
Implied owner FCF multiple (x)
18.2

Balance sheet

685$M

Capitalization

249M shares

Market

$49.39
Latest CART quote · updated Aug 11, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Operating

-50$M
10.0%

Reported

1,176$M
401$M

Valuation

5.5%

Fair value sensitivity

Target owner FCF yield0.0%10.0%20.0%
4.5%$67.45$73.92$80.39
5.5%$55.69$60.98$66.28
6.5%$47.55$52.03$56.50
7.5%$41.57$45.46$49.34

Sources

  1. Q2 2026 GTV and revenue grew 14%, adjusted EBITDA grew 19%, FCF was $480M, H1 2026 FCF was $733M, H1 2026 stock-based compensation was $221M, diluted shares were 248.9M, and cash plus marketable securities were $885M. — storage.googleapis.com (accessed 2026-08-06)
  2. FY2025 free cash flow was $910M and stock-based compensation was $352M. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-06)
  3. CART closed at $45.03 on August 6, 2026. (accessed 2026-08-06)

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