AerCap Capital Recycling Valuation

AerCap Holdings NV (AER)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-07-29
USD
Updated Jul 29, 2026 · Revised 1 time
Download Excel

AerCap Capital Recycling Valuation

A forward EPS valuation based on Fishtown Capital's framework: combine guided adjusted earnings with gains on aircraft sales, apply the accretion from repurchasing shares, capitalize the resulting run-rate EPS at a modest P/E, and cross-check the result against book value and the economics of recycling levered aircraft-sale proceeds into buybacks.

as of 2026-07-29

Fair value per share
$165.98
Upside / downside
17.4%
Projected adjusted net income
$2.94
Implied equity value
$25.0
Run-rate adjusted EPS
$19.53
Estimated year-end book value per share
$125.78
Fair value / estimated year-end book
1.32
Current price / run-rate EPS
7.2
Capital recycling value multiple
1.51
Additional share-count reduction
2.6%

Capital recycling

$151.17$/share
20.0%
$2.0$B
$0.6$B

Market and valuation

$141.37$/share
Latest AER quote · updated Sep 9, 2026 11:34 AM MDT
8.5x

Fair value by target P/E and second-half asset sales

Target forward P/E$1.0 $B$1.5 $B$2.0 $B$2.5 $B$3.0 $B
7.0 x$128.82$132.76$136.69$140.62$144.55
8.0 x$147.23$151.72$156.21$160.71$165.20
8.5 x$156.43$161.20$165.98$170.75$175.52
9.5 x$174.83$180.17$185.50$190.84$196.17
11.0 x$202.44$208.62$214.79$220.97$227.15

Sources

  1. Fishtown Capital projected FY2026 core EPS of $13 plus $5 of gain-on-sale EPS, then applied an 8% share-count reduction to approach $20 EPS; the shares were about 7x that estimate and the author saw 20%+ upside. — seekingalpha.com (accessed 2026-07-29)
  2. AerCap Q2 2026 reported $5.14 adjusted EPS, $1.4B of asset sales at a 20% unlevered gain-on-sale margin, $119.21 book value per share, 154.43M ordinary shares excluding unvested restricted stock, 2.05x adjusted leverage, and FY2026 adjusted net income guidance of $2.6B including first-half gains on sale but excluding second-half gains. — aercap.com (accessed 2026-07-29)
  3. AER market price was $151.17 at 2026-07-29T14:28:18Z. (accessed 2026-07-29)

Built with Modeledge MCP

Connect your MCP client to research filings and earnings calls, then build a living financial model like this one.

Connect your agent