AerCap Capital Recycling Valuation

AerCap Holdings NV (AER)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-10-07
USD
Updated Oct 7, 2026 · Revised 4 times
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AerCap Capital Recycling Valuation

A forward EPS valuation based on Fishtown Capital's framework: combine guided adjusted earnings with gains on aircraft sales, apply the accretion from repurchasing shares, capitalize the resulting run-rate EPS at a modest P/E, and cross-check the result against book value and the economics of recycling levered aircraft-sale proceeds into buybacks.

as of 2026-10-07

Fair value per share
$165.98
Upside / downside
13.7%
Projected adjusted net income
$2.94
Implied equity value
$25.0
Run-rate adjusted EPS
$19.53
Estimated year-end book value per share
$125.78
Fair value / estimated year-end book
1.32
Current price / run-rate EPS
7.5
Capital recycling value multiple
1.50
Additional share-count reduction
2.6%

Capital recycling

$151.17$/share
20.0%
$2.0$B
$0.6$B

Market and valuation

$145.92$/share
Latest AER quote · updated Oct 23, 2026 2:00 PM MDT
8.5x

Fair value by target P/E and second-half asset sales

Target forward P/E$1.0 $B$1.5 $B$2.0 $B$2.5 $B$3.0 $B
7.0 x$128.82$132.76$136.69$140.62$144.55
8.0 x$147.23$151.72$156.21$160.71$165.20
8.5 x$156.43$161.20$165.98$170.75$175.52
9.5 x$174.83$180.17$185.50$190.84$196.17
11.0 x$202.44$208.62$214.79$220.97$227.15

Sources

  1. October 7 Model Edge reference AER quote $142.56, refreshed 2026-10-07T15:03:01.060846-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this price; valuation changes are separately explained. (accessed 2026-10-07)
  2. October 7 6-K confirms closing of TWO $750M note tranches ($1.5B total), 5.50% due2030 and 5.875% due2033. The headline's $750M is not the aggregate financing. Closing resolves the previously expected settlement; matched debt repayment, net interest and capital-recycling cash bridge remain unquantified. Do not add gross proceeds as equity value or change guided adjusted earnings; preserve existing $165.976539 valuation. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-10-07)
  3. September 25, 2026 Model Edge reference AER price $149.21, refreshed 2026-09-25T15:02:45.304911-06:00. This changes market-relative outputs; intrinsic changes are separately sourced. (accessed 2026-09-26)
  4. Final prospectus specifies two $750M tranches at 5.500% and 5.875%, due 2030 and 2033; expected October 7 settlement and $1.48395B proceeds before expenses after underwriting discounts. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-26)
  5. September 16 reference AER price $142.21; quote update 2026-09-16T15:00:38.62274-06:00. Current price updates market-relative outputs; operating assumption changes are separately sourced. (accessed 2026-09-16)
  6. September 16 board authorized up to $1B repurchases through June 30, 2027, subject to discretion and market conditions; not executed retirement or firm 2026 schedule. Retain $0.6B modeled post-June buybacks at $151.17 assumed execution price, $2B H2 asset sales at 20% margin, $2.6B guided adjusted net income and 8.5x. Q2 release/call confirm guidance includes H1 gains but excludes H2 gains; avoid double-counting. FY sales outlook $4-5B supports existing H2 assumption. Three Rita Forst records concern one 2,000-share personal sale, not issuer repurchases. Price $142.21; intrinsic value unchanged. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-16)
  7. Fishtown Capital projected FY2026 core EPS of $13 plus $5 of gain-on-sale EPS, then applied an 8% share-count reduction to approach $20 EPS; the shares were about 7x that estimate and the author saw 20%+ upside. — seekingalpha.com (accessed 2026-07-29)
  8. AerCap Q2 2026 reported $5.14 adjusted EPS, $1.4B of asset sales at a 20% unlevered gain-on-sale margin, $119.21 book value per share, 154.43M ordinary shares excluding unvested restricted stock, 2.05x adjusted leverage, and FY2026 adjusted net income guidance of $2.6B including first-half gains on sale but excluding second-half gains. — aercap.com (accessed 2026-07-29)
  9. AER market price was $151.17 at 2026-07-29T14:28:18Z. (accessed 2026-07-29)

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