ZIM merger-arbitrage valuation

Zim Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM)
As of 2026-06-21
USD
Updated Jun 20, 2026
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ZIM merger-arbitrage valuation

Probability-weighted special situation valuation for ZIM after the signed Hapag-Lloyd cash merger agreement. The model values the equity as discounted cash deal consideration plus a standalone break-case value, rather than a through-cycle container-shipping DCF, because the signed transaction now dominates the investment case.

as of 2026-06-21

Fair value
$27.09
Upside/downside
11.3%
PV of $35 deal
$33.79
Break probability
37.0%
Gross deal spread
43.8%
Annualized return to $35
120.9%
Market-implied close probability
48.3%

Break Case

$15.50$/share

Market

$24.34$/share

Timing

8.0%
5.5months

Transaction

60.0%
$35.00$/share
$37.50$/share
3.0%

Fair value vs close probability and break value

$35 deal close probability$12.00 $/share$15.50 $/share$19.00 $/share$22.00 $/share
35.0%$20.35$22.52$24.69$26.55
50.0%$23.62$25.26$26.91$28.32
65.0%$26.89$28.01$29.13$30.09
80.0%$30.16$30.75$31.35$31.86

Sources

  1. ZIM announced a merger agreement under which Hapag-Lloyd will acquire ZIM for $35.00 per share in cash, with expected closing in late 2026. — investors.zim.com (accessed 2026-06-21)
  2. ZIM's Q1 2026 release says shareholders approved the merger on April 30, 2026, with remaining regulatory and State of Israel Golden Share approvals expected before a Q4 2026 closing. — investors.zim.com (accessed 2026-06-21)
  3. The merger agreement is not subject to financing; outside date is February 17, 2027, extendable to June 30, 2027 for regulatory approvals, and includes a $160 million parent termination fee for certain regulatory failures. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-06-21)
  4. Q1 2026 fundamentals weakened materially: 866k TEU carried, $1,310/TEU average freight rate, $86 million net loss, $313 million adjusted EBITDA, $235 million free cash flow, and $2.93 billion net debt. — investors.zim.com (accessed 2026-06-21)
  5. Modeledge Hawk quote feed showed ZIM last price of $24.34 on 2026-06-21. (accessed 2026-06-21)

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