ZIM merger-arbitrage valuation

Zim Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-08-19
USD
Updated Aug 19, 2026 · Revised 1 time
Download Excel

ZIM merger-arbitrage valuation

Probability-weighted special situation valuation for ZIM after the signed Hapag-Lloyd cash merger agreement. The model values the equity as discounted cash deal consideration plus a standalone break-case value. Q2 2026 results improved the standalone downside anchor, but the transaction still dominates fair value because the $35.00 cash consideration remains signed and targeted for Q4 2026 subject to regulatory and State of Israel Golden Share approvals.

as of 2026-08-19

Fair value
$29.01
Upside/downside
-1.5%
PV of $35 deal
$34.11
Break probability
33.0%
Gross deal spread
18.8%
Annualized return to $35
67.9%
Market-implied close probability
70.1%

Break Case

$18.50$/share

Market

$29.45$/share
Latest ZIM quote · updated Sep 9, 2026 10:03 AM MDT

Timing

8.0%
4.0months

Transaction

65.0%
$35.00$/share
$37.50$/share
2.0%

Fair value vs close probability and break value

$35 deal close probability$15.00 $/share$18.50 $/share$22.00 $/share$25.00 $/share
40.0%$23.08$25.11$27.14$28.88
55.0%$25.94$27.45$28.95$30.24
70.0%$28.81$29.79$30.77$31.61
85.0%$31.68$32.13$32.59$32.98

Sources

  1. ZIM's Q2 2026 release reported revenue of $1.78 billion, net income of $64 million, adjusted EBITDA of $491 million, free cash flow of $386 million, net debt of $2.77 billion, and current 2026 guidance for adjusted EBITDA of $2.0 billion to $2.4 billion. — investors.zim.com (accessed 2026-08-19)
  2. The Q2 2026 release says the Hapag-Lloyd transaction was approved by shareholders on April 30, 2026, remains subject to regulatory approvals including the State of Israel Golden Share approval, and is targeted to close in Q4 2026. — investors.zim.com (accessed 2026-08-19)
  3. ZIM's July 6, 2026 update says the company continues to act under the merger agreement and collaborate with relevant state authorities as part of the regulatory review process. — investors.zim.com (accessed 2026-08-19)
  4. ZIM announced a merger agreement under which Hapag-Lloyd will acquire ZIM for $35.00 per share in cash. — investors.zim.com (accessed 2026-08-19)
  5. The merger agreement is not subject to financing; outside date is February 17, 2027, extendable to June 30, 2027 for regulatory approvals, and includes a $160 million parent termination fee for certain regulatory failures. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-19)
  6. Modeledge Hawk quote feed showed ZIM last price of $27.35 at 2026-08-19T13:33:00Z. (accessed 2026-08-19)

Built with Modeledge MCP

Connect your MCP client to research filings and earnings calls, then build a living financial model like this one.

Connect your agent