ZIM merger-arbitrage valuation

Sources

1. October 15 Model Edge regular-session ZIM reference $29.54, refreshed 2026-10-15T15:04:34.923861-06:00. Retrieval time is not trade time. Scope and separate financial-anchor changes are described in refresh context. (accessed 2026-10-15)
2. Read October 15 6-K and relevant December 1 AGM proxy sections: routine director/auditor election, not a new takeover vote or consideration change. Preserve $35 signed cash terms, 50% closing probability, $18.50 break value and six-month September 30 timing anchor. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-10-15)
3. October 6 Model Edge reference ZIM quote $29.2, refreshed 2026-10-06T15:02:50.692253-06:00. Price changes refresh market-relative outputs; evidence-supported valuation changes are separately described. (accessed 2026-10-06)
4. October 6 guidance update raises full-year adjusted EBITDA from $2.0B-$2.4B to $2.7B-$3.0B and adjusted EBIT from $0.7B-$1.1B to $1.4B-$1.7B, citing stronger demand and freight rates. This supports the standalone business but does not provide a new complete cash/debt/charter bridge, a dividend declaration or merger approval. Preserve signed $35 consideration, 50% base closing probability, $18.50 break value and six-month timing assumption anchored September 30 pending substantiated revisions. Fair value $26.089383 unchanged; refresh reference price to $29.20. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-06)
5. Additional supporting source for the October 6 review; see the dated evidence note. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-10-06)
6. September 30 Modeledge reference ZIM price $29.32, refreshed 2026-09-30T15:27:35.059492-06:00. This quote refresh changes market-relative outputs; any intrinsic effects are separately explained. For USAU only, the existing financing-price formula mechanically links valuation to price. (accessed 2026-09-30)
7. September 30: the company's 6-K says the GCA ceased handling the March approval application after a detailed revised proposal was not submitted by the deadline. Hapag-Lloyd intends to submit a revised proposal. This is a regulatory-process setback, not confirmation the merger agreement terminated or the $35 consideration changed. Analyst base close probability falls 65% to 50%; remaining time increases 4 to 6 months from the new September 30 as-of date. Bear/bull probabilities move 42%/82% to 27%/67%, preserving offsets, and timing 7/2.75 to 9/4.75 months. These are judgmental risk sensitivities, not measured probabilities or company guidance. Reset superior-offer probability to zero in every scenario per the existing checklist; no actionable superior proposal verified. Retain standalone values $15/$18.50/$21 and discount rates 10%/8%/6%. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-30)
8. ZIM's Q2 2026 release reported revenue of $1.78 billion, net income of $64 million, adjusted EBITDA of $491 million, free cash flow of $386 million, net debt of $2.77 billion, and current 2026 guidance for adjusted EBITDA of $2.0 billion to $2.4 billion. — investors.zim.com (accessed 2026-08-19)
9. The Q2 2026 release says the Hapag-Lloyd transaction was approved by shareholders on April 30, 2026, remains subject to regulatory approvals including the State of Israel Golden Share approval, and is targeted to close in Q4 2026. — investors.zim.com (accessed 2026-08-19)
10. ZIM's July 6, 2026 update says the company continues to act under the merger agreement and collaborate with relevant state authorities as part of the regulatory review process. — investors.zim.com (accessed 2026-08-19)
11. ZIM announced a merger agreement under which Hapag-Lloyd will acquire ZIM for $35.00 per share in cash. — investors.zim.com (accessed 2026-08-19)
12. The merger agreement is not subject to financing; outside date is February 17, 2027, extendable to June 30, 2027 for regulatory approvals, and includes a $160 million parent termination fee for certain regulatory failures. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-19)
13. Modeledge Hawk quote feed showed ZIM last price of $27.35 at 2026-08-19T13:33:00Z. (accessed 2026-08-19)