Blue Moon Metals risk-adjusted project valuation

Sources

1. October 6 Model Edge reference BMM quote $5.13, refreshed 2026-10-06T15:02:51.254726-06:00. Price changes refresh market-relative outputs; evidence-supported valuation changes are separately described. (accessed 2026-10-06)
2. October 6: 150,000 new consultant options have C$6.99 strike, five-year term and annual one-third vesting over three years. Apply the existing conservative options convention (full shares, no exercise proceeds): increase options_and_dsus from 0.712529M to 0.862529M, without changing project NAV. This is only the newly verified incremental award, not a completed aggregate capitalization reconciliation. Springer historical-core assays do not establish a current resource, reserves or feasibility economics; the headline 7.84% WO3 versus body/table 7.82% inconsistency is retained as uncertainty, and the narrow 0.3m intercept has unverified true width. Keep mine-life, recovery, commodity-price and financing assumptions. Price rose 5.02% to $5.13. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-06)
3. Additional supporting source for the October 6 review; see the dated evidence note. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-10-06)
4. September 23 Turner agreement is pending approval/November closing, not a completed acquisition. Terms: $4.7M cash including announced $0.5M deposit, 4,778,761 shares in four tranches and up to $7M milestones; 1.5% NSR remains. Historical resource is not a verified current reserve or completed economic study. September 22 Springer drilling is partial and stockpile assays pending. Elmet issued BMM 1,166,970 warrants at $21.423 September 21; do not book $25M notional as cash. New 50,000 options, 993,146 RSUs and 268,586 DSUs require settlement and aggregate capitalization reconciliation. Retain NAV pending a paired asset/cost/dilution bridge; price fell 8.92%, precise cause unverified. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-23)
5. September 23 reference BMM price $5.26; quote timestamp 2026-09-23T15:21:17.727223-06:00. Market price alone does not change operating value. (accessed 2026-09-23)
6. September 15: Investigated the 7.75% decline. No new indexed company event after the 14:32:44Z cutoff or verified new company-specific catalyst was found. Re-read the September 14 Springer/Elmet announcement, already incorporated in this morning's conditional project-NAV model. Update only the BMM quote to $5.24. Keep the $5.20 water-acquisition issue-price assumption, fixed 1.40 CAD/USD convention and financing/dilution assumptions; the headline $150M-$175M is not completed unrestricted BMM cash. — bluemoonmetals.com (accessed 2026-09-15)
7. September 15 reference BMM share price $5.24; provider quote update 2026-09-15T15:01:38.027726-06:00. Stock-price movement alone does not change the operating forecast. (accessed 2026-09-15)
8. June 30, 2026 financial statements: CAD cash, ownership, 104.863001m basic shares, debt, leases, share awards, royalties and subsequent Ropa consideration. — sec.gov
9. Nussir FS NPV8 USD235m consensus / USD559m March spot; USD184m initial and USD495m sustaining capital. Blue Moon PEA economics and funding status. — sec.gov
10. Nussir original feasibility report; project NAV already includes mine capital, and is not corporate equity value. — sec.gov
11. Proposed Nussir USD70m precious metals stream, gold/silver delivery percentages and step-downs. Net financing deductions are analyst estimates after crediting proceeds. — bluemoonmetals.com
12. September 14 announced Elmet equity, warrants, repayable advance and 20% APT stake. Deal completion remains conditional; USD75m/70% is a heuristic JV value, not an appraisal. — sec.gov
13. September presentation: Springer 107,000-124,000 MTU potential and USD300-400/MTU cost estimates; historical resource is unverified. Model life, restart capex, taxes, payability and risk factors are analyst assumptions. — bluemoonmetals.com
14. Water/land consideration: USD3.5m cash plus USD4.5m shares at future VWAP, expected completion early 2027. Share issue price USD5.20 is an estimate. — bluemoonmetals.com
15. California standalone PEA NPV8 USD244m base, USD163m at 10% lower prices and USD340m historical spot; no additional DSO synergy credited. — bluemoonmetals.com
16. ESA infringement proceedings include Repparfjord; valuation retains material permitting risk. Proceedings do not establish automatic Nussir permit revocation. — eftasurv.int
17. Management states Nussir permits remain in good standing and discusses legal uncertainty, August 13, 2026. — bluemoonmetals.com
18. Apex historical-resource limitations; USD10m/25m/60m net option values are analyst judgments, not company economic-study NPVs. — bluemoonmetals.com
19. BMM reference quote USD5.20 at 2026-09-15 14:32:44 UTC via Modeledge price provider. CAD/USD1.40 is a fixed modeling assumption; no live FX quote asserted.