Lululemon Athletica EPS and FCF blended valuation

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-10-07
USD
Updated Oct 7, 2026 · Revised 4 times
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Lululemon Athletica EPS and FCF blended valuation

Blends forward FY26 EPS excluding tariff refunds with updated trailing twelve-month FCF excluding the gross tariff refund and interest receipt. Keeps the 75% EPS / 25% FCF base weights and 13x/16x multiples. TTM cash flow is historical and seasonal, not FY26 guidance; cash-tax timing around the refund is uncertain. Historical FY25 outputs are retained for comparison only.

as of 2026-10-07

Fair value
$128.33
Upside
35.8%
TTM EPS
$12.17
FY2025 FCF/share
$7.74
Forward EPS excluding refund
$8.75
TTM FCF excluding gross refund
$1,215.7
Normalized TTM FCF per share
$10.77
Implied equity value
$14,490.8

Capitalization

112.92M shares

Cash flow

330.16$M
209.72$M
277.06$M
589.28$M
138.60$M

Earnings

9.61$
0.86$

Historical

681$M
$13.26USD/share
119.1M shares
1,602$M
$2.60USD/share
$1.69USD/share
3.10$
2.92$

Valuation

$94.50USD/share
Latest LULU quote · updated Oct 9, 2026 2:00 PM MDT
75%
16
13

Sources

  1. October 7 Model Edge reference LULU quote $91.88, refreshed 2026-10-07T15:03:01.140537-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this price; valuation changes are separately explained. (accessed 2026-10-07)
  2. October 7 leadership 8-K appoints product chief Gauger effectiveOct26: $1M salary,150%targetbonus,$1.9Msign-on,$2.8Mtwo-yearRSUs and up to$0.5Mreimbursement; COO Godsey $0.7Msalary,100%targetbonus,$0.65Msign-on,$2Mtwo-yearRSUs. Two departures November6; CFO Frank expanded interim responsibilities and retention equity not quantified. These commitments do not establish revised net company earnings guidance or issued common shares. Preserve normalized FY26 EPS $8.745, excluding $0.86 tariff refund, and 75%13xEPS/25%16xFCF method; $128.329523 unchanged. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-07)
  3. September 14 8-K confirms previously announced CEO Heidi O'Neill started September 8, board expanded to 12, and procedural bylaw changes; no new operating guidance. September 11 Forms 3/4 cover contingent RSUs and service-vesting options, not an immediate full issuance. Preserve adjusted FY2026 EPS, excluded tariff refund and existing valuation method. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-14)
  4. September 14 Modeledge reference LULU share price $100.3 retrieved after the regular U.S. close. Quote updates affect market-relative outputs; forecast changes, if any, are separately identified. (accessed 2026-09-14)
  5. FY2025 Form 10-K reports net revenue of $11.103B, diluted EPS of $13.26, operating cash flow of $1.602B, capital expenditures of $0.681B, and 119.068M diluted shares. — sec.gov
  6. Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q reports diluted EPS of $1.69 versus $2.60 in Q1 FY2025. — sec.gov
  7. Current share price of $115.64 from Modeledge portfolio quote cache.
  8. FY26 EPS guide $9.48-$9.73 includes $0.86 tariff refund and interest benefit. Q2 EPS $2.92 versus $3.10; Q2 diluted shares 112.919M. — corporate.lululemon.com (accessed 2026-09-07)
  9. H1 FY26/FY25 OCF $589.278M/$209.722M and capex $277.056M/$330.161M. Received $134.5M tariff refunds plus $4.1M interest. TTM FCF is bridged from FY25 and gross refunds removed conservatively. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-07)
  10. September 8, 2026 provider reference quote refreshed to $103.19; price-dependent outputs updated. No new indexed company activity since the September 7 review; existing intrinsic assumptions retained. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-08)

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