CVR Energy SOTP Mid-Cycle Refining Valuation

Sources

1. October 13 Model Edge regular-session reference CVI price $63.12, refreshed 2026-10-13T15:02:12.141217-06:00. Price refresh changes market-relative outputs; separate evidence/relative-method changes are described below. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-13)
2. October 13 timestamped $126.21 provider quote; historical unit/ownership basis retained from existing cited filings. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-13)
3. September 15: Update UAN stake from $493M to approximately $523.466M using the September presentation's 36.8% stake, July 24 reported 10.569637M UAN units and $134.58 September 15 20:00:03Z quote. Update parent/refining net debt from rounded $620M to $613M: ($1,783M consolidated debt/leases - $570M UAN debt) - ($737M consolidated cash - $137M UAN cash). Keep 210kbpd, $16/bbl normalized margin, 5x and $300M RIN/corporate deduction. September deck and EPA August 31 decision indicate SRE relief, but do not quantify a new issuer-specific net cash benefit sufficient to remove the allowance. Investigated 7.28% daily gain; a precise same-day cause was not established. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-15)
4. September 15 reference CVI share price $52.17; provider quote update 2026-09-15T15:01:38.112488-06:00. Stock-price movement alone does not change the operating forecast. (accessed 2026-09-15)
5. UAN Q2 10-Q cover reports 10,569,637 common units at July 24. September 15 UAN quote $134.58 at 20:00:03Z gives $1,422.461747M quoted equity value; 36.8% is the rounded ownership percentage in CVI's September deck. Parent/refining net debt excludes UAN cash and debt. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-15)
6. EPA August 31 2026 announcement addresses 2025 small-refinery exemptions and proposed reallocations. Industry relief is not a quantified CVI cash receipt; do not automatically reverse all RIN/corporate deductions. — epa.gov (accessed 2026-09-15)
7. CVR Energy Q2 2026 release reported adjusted EBITDA of $209M, petroleum adjusted EBITDA of $106M, petroleum throughput of 212,965 bpd, adjusted refining margin of $12.43/bbl, and direct operating expense of $5.93/bbl. — sec.gov
8. CVR Energy Q2 2026 release reported consolidated cash of $737M, total debt and finance lease obligations of $1.783B, $570M of debt held by the nitrogen fertilizer segment, and $137M of fertilizer segment cash. — sec.gov
9. Q3 2026 outlook called for petroleum throughput of 205,000-220,000 bpd, petroleum direct operating expenses of $110M-$120M, and lower fertilizer utilization from the East Dubuque turnaround. — sec.gov
10. Q2 2026 call transcript discussed RIN pressure, including $216M of net RIN expense, a $408M accrued RFS obligation, $81M of realized hedge losses, and management's focus on debt reduction toward $1B gross leverage excluding CVR Partners. — stockanalysis.com
11. CVI market price was about $33.33 and UAN market capitalization was about $1.33B around the August 5, 2026 refresh; CVI owns approximately 37% of CVR Partners common units. — stockanalysis.com