Meta Platforms (META) — Family of Apps owner earnings less Reality Labs and AI build haircut, FY2026E

Assumptions as of 2026-07-30

USD

Updated Jul 30, 2026

as of 2026-07-30

Fair value per share

$487.57

Upside vs market

-8.6%

Core owner earnings ($M)

72,018

FY2026E revenue ($M)

252,736

AI build write-off ($M)

45,000

Capex incl. finance-lease principal, 2026 + 2027

300,000$M

Family of Apps owner-earnings multiple

18.0

FY2026 total costs and expenses (company guide 165,000-169,000)

167,000$M

Maintenance capex proxy, 2026 + 2027 D&A

75,000$M

Market price

$533.17

Q3 2026 revenue (company guide 61,000-64,000)

62,500$M

Q4 revenue as multiple of Q3 (seasonality)

1.17

Reality Labs operating loss FY2026E

19,200$M

Diluted shares (M)

2,580M

Effective tax rate

16.0%

Share of growth capex assumed to earn no return

20.0%

	FY2026E
H1 2026 revenue (actual)	117,111
+ Q3 2026E revenue (guide)	62,500
+ Q4 2026E revenue (Q3 x seasonality)	73,125
= FY2026E revenue	252,736
FY2026E revenue growth	25.8%
- FY2026E total expenses (guide)	167,000
= FY2026E operating income	85,736
Check: vs FY2025 operating income	3.0%
+ Reality Labs loss added back	19,200
= Family of Apps operating income	104,936
Family of Apps NOPAT	88,146
- Reality Labs after-tax loss	16,128
= Core owner earnings	72,018
x multiple = Core enterprise value	1,296,328
Growth capex 2026+2027 above D&A	225,000
- AI build write-off	45,000
+ Net cash	6,596
= Equity value	1,257,924
Market cap for comparison	1,375,579

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