Seagate classic forward PEG valuation

Sources

1. October 6 Model Edge reference STX quote $805.63, refreshed 2026-10-06T15:02:52.617374-06:00. Price changes refresh market-relative outputs; evidence-supported valuation changes are separately described. (accessed 2026-10-06)
2. October 6: price fell 9.18% to $805.63. Reporting describes competitive concerns involving Toshiba, Seagate and TDK magnetic-head supply. The reported supplier situation is not a confirmed issuer forecast cut. Earlier Toshiba capacity expansion refers to storage-capacity output, not necessarily HDD unit counts. October 6 consensus-page check (dated October 5) still gives FY2027 EPS $32.06/$35.78/$41.89, EPS growth 129.66% and revenue growth 54.04%. Preserve PEG 1 and sustainable growth 15%/20%/25%; fair value $715.60 unchanged. — sg.finance.yahoo.com (accessed 2026-10-06)
3. Additional supporting source for the October 6 review; see the dated evidence note. — stockanalysis.com (accessed 2026-10-06)
4. October 5 Model Edge reference STX price $887.09, refreshed 2026-10-05T15:03:37.217509-06:00. Price-only inputs refresh market-relative outputs; BRUN also refreshes its established peer-relative multiple. (accessed 2026-10-05)
5. October 5: reference price rebounded 4.49% to $887.09 following Friday’s Toshiba capacity-news selloff. Rechecked October 5 consensus: FY2027 EPS $32.06/$35.78/$41.89, EPS growth 129.66% and revenue growth 54.04% remain unchanged. Preserve PEG 1 with sustainable growth 15%/20%/25%, base value $715.60. Competitive storage capacity is a risk to monitor, not a quantified earnings cut or a reason to capitalize the full one-year rebound. — toshiba.semicon-storage.com (accessed 2026-10-05)
6. Additional source for the October 5 review; see dated evidence note. — stockanalysis.com (accessed 2026-10-05)
7. October 2 Model Edge reference STX quote $848.99, refreshed 2026-10-02T17:10:08.209906-06:00. Price alone is not evidence to change operating forecasts; BRUN separately refreshes the existing peer-relative valuation. (accessed 2026-10-02)
8. October 2: reference shares fell 10.21% to $848.99. Toshiba confirms expanded Philippine nearline-HDD shipments and a nearly doubled FY2027 storage-capacity target versus FY2025, not doubled unit production. This is a credible reported competitive catalyst, not a quantified STX earnings revision. Available FY2027 consensus remains $35.78 EPS (bear $32.06/bull $41.89); keep PEG 1 and sustainable growth 15%/20%/25%, base $715.60. Two October 2 Forms 4 describe the CEO's preplanned option exercise and sales under a February 18 plan; avoid counting exercise, class changes or sales as multiple new share issuances. — toshiba.semicon-storage.com (accessed 2026-10-02)
9. Additional supporting source for the October 2 STX review; see the first dated evidence note. — stockanalysis.com (accessed 2026-10-02)
10. Additional supporting source for the October 2 STX review; see the first dated evidence note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-02)
11. September 10 Modeledge reference share price $862.33; market price alone is not used to revise operating forecasts. (accessed 2026-09-10)
12. September 10 Goldman conference: purchase orders span four to five quarters; management expects sequential FY2027 revenue/margin growth, HAMR crossover by December and higher buybacks after another high-coupon note retirement. No new quantified EPS guide was given. Retain FY2027 EPS $35.78 and 1.0 fair PEG with 20% sustainable growth; do not roll into FY2028. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-10)
13. Seagate reported FY2026 revenue of $12.195 billion and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $15.58; it guided Q1 FY2027 revenue to $4.1 billion plus or minus $0.1 billion and non-GAAP EPS to $7.30 plus or minus $0.20. — s24.q4cdn.com (accessed 2026-07-30)
14. S&P Global consensus shown by StockAnalysis estimates FY2027 revenue of $18.51 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $35.80, revenue growth of 51.76%, and EPS growth of 129.81%. — stockanalysis.com (accessed 2026-07-30)
15. Consensus observed September 9: FY2027 adjusted non-GAAP EPS $35.78 (low $32.06, high $41.89), EPS growth 129.66%, revenue $18.78B and revenue growth 54.04%. This supersedes the July consensus source above. Page labels last updated July 30 and last checked August 28; the small EPS difference is not asserted to be new guidance. Fair PEG 1.0 and 15%/20%/25% sustainable growth scenarios are unchanged. — stockanalysis.com (accessed 2026-09-09)
16. September 9 Citi conference reiterated sequential FY2027 growth and supply discipline without new quantified EPS guidance. September 8 redemption involved cash principal and incremental conversion shares; full diluted-share reconciliation remains pending. The forward share count is a diagnostic input and does not determine per-share EPS-times-P/E fair value. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-09)