Nexa Resources zinc, silver stream step-down, and smelting margin model

Assumptions as of 2026-06-12

USD

Updated Jun 20, 2026

as of 2026-06-12

FY2027E adjusted EBITDA

$1173

FY2027E mining EBITDA

$929

FY2027E smelting EBITDA

$244

FY2027E smelting margin

10.5%

FY2027E market silver exposure

10.3

FY2027E silver step-down EBITDA lift

$71

FY2027E FCF before working capital

$278

FY2027E implied share price

$31.94

Current EV / FY2027E EBITDA

2.7

Cerro Lindo share of silver production

36.7%

Current net debt ($M)

$1303

Current share price

$13.72

Diluted shares (M)

132.4

Stream cash price ($/oz)

$5.00

	FY2025A	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E
Cash interest, tax, and other uses ($M)
Cerro Lindo streamed silver share
Mining cost and other-metal net contribution ($M)
Mining zinc production (kt contained)
Forecast net debt ($M)
Silver price ($/oz)
Silver production (Moz)
Smelting byproduct and premium revenue ($M)
Smelting EBITDA margin
Smelting zinc sales (kt)
Sustaining and growth capex ($M)
Target EV/EBITDA multiple
Zinc price ($/t)

Nexa Resources S.A. was identified as NYSE:NEXA, CIK 1713930. — modeledge.ai
FY2025 net revenues, adjusted EBITDA, mining and smelting segment EBITDA, metal prices, production, capex, shares, and net debt were calibrated from Nexa's FY2025 earnings release. — modeledge.ai
Nexa's Q1 2026 transcript stated that annual silver production is roughly 11 Moz and that the Cerro Lindo silver stream stepped down from 65% streamed to 25% streamed after an April 2026 delivery threshold. — modeledge.ai
Nexa's May 2026 Cajamarquilla update stated the temporary refined zinc production impact should be recovered during 2H26 and 2026 sales guidance remained unchanged. — modeledge.ai

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