Nexa Resources zinc, silver stream step-down, and smelting margin model

Nexa Resources SA (NEXA)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-06-12
USD
Updated Jun 20, 2026
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Nexa Resources zinc, silver stream step-down, and smelting margin model

as of 2026-06-12

FY2027E adjusted EBITDA
$1173
FY2027E mining EBITDA
$929
FY2027E smelting EBITDA
$244
FY2027E smelting margin
10.5%
FY2027E market silver exposure
10.3
FY2027E silver step-down EBITDA lift
$71
FY2027E FCF before working capital
$278
FY2027E implied share price
$31.94
Current EV / FY2027E EBITDA
2.7
36.7%
$1303
$13.72
132.4
$5.00
FY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
Cash interest, tax, and other uses ($M)
Cerro Lindo streamed silver share
Mining cost and other-metal net contribution ($M)
Mining zinc production (kt contained)
Forecast net debt ($M)
Silver price ($/oz)
Silver production (Moz)
Smelting byproduct and premium revenue ($M)
Smelting EBITDA margin
Smelting zinc sales (kt)
Sustaining and growth capex ($M)
Target EV/EBITDA multiple
Zinc price ($/t)

Sources

  1. Nexa Resources S.A. was identified as NYSE:NEXA, CIK 1713930. — modeledge.ai
  2. FY2025 net revenues, adjusted EBITDA, mining and smelting segment EBITDA, metal prices, production, capex, shares, and net debt were calibrated from Nexa's FY2025 earnings release. — modeledge.ai
  3. Nexa's Q1 2026 transcript stated that annual silver production is roughly 11 Moz and that the Cerro Lindo silver stream stepped down from 65% streamed to 25% streamed after an April 2026 delivery threshold. — modeledge.ai
  4. Nexa's May 2026 Cajamarquilla update stated the temporary refined zinc production impact should be recovered during 2H26 and 2026 sales guidance remained unchanged. — modeledge.ai

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