Abivax obefazimod UC rNPV

Abivax SA (ABVX)
By@grokius
Assumptions as of 2026-08-26
USD
Updated Aug 26, 2026 · Revised 1 time
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Abivax obefazimod UC rNPV

Risk-adjusted NPV of obefazimod in ulcerative colitis plus a Crohn's option and net cash. UC is Phase 3 complete (ABTECT induction and 44-week maintenance) with a late-2026 NDA and a July 2026 pre-NDA FDA alignment. This is not an FCF-yield model. Peak sales times approval probability times an NPV-per-peak-dollar factor is the valuation basis. Diluted shares use the 31 Jul 2026 87.25M basic count after the greenshoe, plus a haircut for AGAs. ABTECT-2 25 mg missed the FDA induction primary; 50 mg is the working commercial dose.

as of 2026-08-26

Fair value
$147.54
Upside
42.6%
UC risk-adjusted NPV
$11.2
Pipeline enterprise value
$12.2
Equity value
$13.5
Net cash
$1.27

Capital structure

91.3M shares
$1.27$B

Crohn's

$1.00$B

Market

$103.45USD/share
Latest ABVX quote · updated Sep 21, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Ulcerative colitis

$7.0$B
80%

Valuation

2.00

Obefazimod rNPV bridge

Valuation
UC unrisked peak sales$7.0
UC risk-adjusted NPV$11.2
Crohn's option$1.00
Enterprise value$12.2
Net cash$1.27
Equity value$13.5
Fair value per share$147.54

Sources

  1. ABTECT-1/2 8-week induction (Jul 2025): 1,275 patients. 50 mg hit the FDA primary in both trials (ABTECT-1 delta 19.3%, ABTECT-2 delta 13.4%; pooled delta 16.4%). 25 mg hit in ABTECT-1 (delta 21.4%) and missed in ABTECT-2 (delta 5.1%, p=0.1034). That is why 50 mg is the working commercial dose despite noisier maintenance TEAEs. — sec.gov
  2. ABTECT 44-week maintenance (Study 107): clinical remission at week 44 was 50.8% on 25 mg (delta 39.3%, p<0.0001) and 51.3% on 50 mg (delta 40.3%, p<0.0001) vs 10.4% placebo, the lowest placebo rate reported in a Phase 3 UC maintenance re-randomization trial. All key secondaries hit. NDA planned late Q4 2026. ENHANCE-CD Phase 2b induction topline mid-2027. — sec.gov
  3. ABTECT maintenance Part 2 (induction non-responders and Part 1 relapsers): 50 mg non-responders reached 37.2% clinical remission and 61.5% response at week 44. Relapsers re-treated with 50 mg reached ~45% remission. NMSC and non-NMSC EAIRs described as within published UC background. NDA still Q4 2026. — sec.gov
  4. Q1 2026: cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments €491.6M at March 31, 2026 (runway into Q4 2027 pre-raise). Q1 operating loss €56.2M. Study 108 dose de-escalation: 68% (88/130) in clinical remission at week 144. — sec.gov
  5. July 2026 offering closed 6 Jul with full greenshoe: 7.36M ADS at $125.00, gross $920.0M, net about $874.1M. Company reported 87,253,797 shares outstanding on 31 Jul 2026. Runway into Q4 2029. Royalty certificates fully repurchased 7 May 2026 for $90M ($45M cash plus 403,347 shares). — ir.abivax.com
  6. July 30, 2026: positive pre-NDA FDA interaction. Alignment on NDA submission strategy, content and format. Still on track to file by end of 2026. — biospace.com
  7. 11-analyst S&P Global consensus on StockAnalysis as of August 26, 2026: Strong Buy, average target $165.91, median $170, low $142, high $187. MS $180 (Jul 24), Piper $175, Guggenheim $175, Jefferies $158 (upgrade), Wedbush Hold $140. Half-year results due September 21, 2026. — stockanalysis.com

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