Namib Minerals risk-adjusted NAV valuation

Sources

1. October 7 Model Edge reference NAMM quote $1.1, refreshed 2026-10-07T15:03:01.071939-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this price; valuation changes are separately explained. (accessed 2026-10-07)
2. October 7 price -8.33% to$1.10. No verified new company-specific operating catalyst after filings/releases and web investigation. Previously reviewed interim accounts and financing show liquidity risk; no new reserve/life extension or complete cash bridge. Preserve finite-life How valuation,56MnormalizedEBITDA,61.1Mriskadjustedshares,10Mnetdebt and10Mliquidityhaircut; $1.295799 unchanged. Daily gold weakness is context only. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-07)
3. October 2 Model Edge reference NAMM quote $1.26, refreshed 2026-10-02T17:10:07.178995-06:00. Price alone is not evidence to change operating forecasts; BRUN separately refreshes the existing peer-relative valuation. (accessed 2026-10-02)
4. June 30 interim financials and MD&A read in full. H1 revenue $50.836M, group adjusted EBITDA $19M, operating cash flow $9.290M and investing outflow $10.742M; group AISC $3,078/oz versus How Mine $2,534/oz. Cash $1.754M, borrowings $7.425M excluding $0.506M leases, and a $42.870M working-capital deficit. Update reported basic-share diagnostic 54.48M to 55.684433M (June 30); retain risk-adjusted 61.1M denominator to avoid duplicating note/milestone dilution already budgeted. The $5M Ecobank loan was fully drawn in July; the September $6.5M BancABC facility partly funds drilling/DFS, not all restart capital. Keep $10M estimated pro forma net debt pending subsequent cash/uses. How mill commissioning tests are underway, not completed. Group H1 EBITDA is not the model's normalized How Mine annual EBITDA; keep $56M/55% conversion, finite 3.33-year reserve life and $10M liquidity haircut pending a comparable forecast bridge. Rehabilitation beginning 2034 is not proof of extended mineral reserves. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-10-02)
5. Additional supporting source for the October 2 NAMM review; see the first dated evidence note. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-10-02)
6. Additional supporting source for the October 2 NAMM review; see the first dated evidence note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-02)
7. Additional supporting source for the October 2 NAMM review; see the first dated evidence note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-02)
8. September 29 Modeledge reference NAMM stock price $1.005, retrieved 2026-09-29T15:15:01.833492-06:00; a post-session reference snapshot, not an asserted official close. No operating or intrinsic valuation inputs changed in this review. (accessed 2026-09-29)
9. September 29: investigated the 6.07% decline; no verified new adverse operating catalyst. September 21 Redwing dewatering is already-reviewed news, not a restart, reserve upgrade or completed construction financing. The Model Edge filing index is stale versus the September 21 SEC 6-K. Preserve normalized $56M How Mine EBITDA, finite reserve life and discounted development options; carry interim-financial, debt-draw and financing questions. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-29)
10. September 28 Modeledge reference NAMM stock price $1.07, retrieved 2026-09-28T16:46:37.221746-06:00; a post-session reference snapshot, not an asserted official close. Operating assumptions are unchanged except separately documented updates. (accessed 2026-09-28)
11. September 28: investigated the 6.55% decline. Gold weakness is a credible market backdrop, not proof of a new operating setback. September 21 Redwing dewatering was already reviewed and is not production or a reserve upgrade. Preserve normalized How-mine $56M EBITDA and existing NAV/EV framework; do not replace normalized metals assumptions with daily marks. — tradingeconomics.com (accessed 2026-09-28)
12. September 24: shares fell 6.40%; no new verified adverse operating catalyst. September 21 Redwing dewatering completion was already reviewed September 23 and is not today's new information. It does not establish bankable reserves, a funded restart or full mine value. Keep the normalized How Mine valuation and discounted options; no price-driven change to gold, resource life or optionality assumptions. (accessed 2026-09-24)
13. September 24 reference NAMM price $1.17; quote refresh timestamp 2026-09-24T15:15:28.150824-06:00. This changes market-relative outputs; price alone does not change operating assumptions. (accessed 2026-09-24)
14. September 23 price fell 11.35%; no verified issuer-specific adverse catalyst found. September 21 issuer release says Redwing dewatering is complete ahead of schedule and a funded DFS is targeted for early Q1 2027. This does not establish restart production, reserves, construction funding or bankable project value; retain existing risked NAV and How Mine assumptions. The SEC/press index missed this 6-K, recovered through issuer release. Historical review and restart financing/resource work remain open. — namibminerals.com (accessed 2026-09-23)
15. September 23 reference NAMM price $1.25; quote timestamp 2026-09-23T15:21:17.692971-06:00. Market price alone does not change operating value. (accessed 2026-09-23)
16. Market move alone does not justify changing reserve NAV, gold assumptions or conditional project optionality. Expanded the price slider to contain $1.25; DRC financing, dilution and commodity checks remain open. (accessed 2026-09-14)
17. September 14 Modeledge reference NAMM share price $1.25 retrieved after the regular U.S. close. Quote updates affect market-relative outputs; forecast changes, if any, are separately identified. (accessed 2026-09-14)
18. 2025 revenue was $82.6M, adjusted EBITDA was $29.0M, operating cash flow was $13.8M, and 2026 guidance calls for 28,000-31,500 ounces, $2,400-$2,700/oz AISC, and $50M-$62M adjusted EBITDA at a $4,500/oz gold price. — namibminerals.com
19. How Mine had 103koz of Proven and Probable reserves at December 31, 2025 and a reserve-only mine life extending to 2029; Redwing had 1.188Moz M&I resources and Mazowe had 291koz M&I resources. — sec.gov
20. The preliminary combined restart capital for Redwing and Mazowe is $300M-$400M and is expected to require external financing. — sec.gov
21. Redwing dewatering is targeted for Q4 2026, the funded DFS technical program for early Q1 2027, and resource definition work requires the next financing stage. — namibminerals.com
22. How Mine obtained a $5M, 36-month Ecobank facility at an 11% annual rate, secured on plant and machinery and supported by routing at least $3M monthly of gold sales through Ecobank. — sec.gov
23. The July 2026 F-3 covers up to 28.77M earnout shares, 1.63M promissory-note shares, and 18.58M warrant shares; the warrants have an $11.50 exercise price. — sec.gov