IREN AI cloud EV/ARR sum of parts

IREN Limited (IREN)
By@grokius
Assumptions as of 2026-08-28
USD
Updated Aug 28, 2026 · Revised 2 times
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IREN AI cloud EV/ARR sum of parts

Sum-of-parts EV/ARR for IREN's AI cloud book, plus residual Bitcoin mining and undeveloped power, net of converts and committed GPU-facility debt. This is not an FCF-yield model and it is not a NOPAT-after-GPU-depreciation blend. Valuation basis is a discounted EV/ARR multiple on 2026 exit ARR. Diluted shares use the August 14 ordinary-share print plus founder RSUs and unvested awards. OTM converts and the NVIDIA $70 investment right are not treated as shares. Residual 2029/2030 ITM converts default to cash-settle.

as of 2026-08-28

Fair value
$36.61
Upside
-19.4%
AI cloud operating EV
$19.8
Net debt
$5.82
Equity value
$15.7
Fully diluted shares
428.3

AI cloud

5.5
10%
$4.0$B

Capital structure

$7.62$B
$6.75$B
$6.69$B

Market

$45.42USD/share
Latest IREN quote · updated Sep 9, 2026 1:33 PM MDT

SOTP

$0.20$B
$1.50$B

Shares

18.2M shares
0.0M shares
16.0M shares
394.1M shares

IREN EV/ARR SOTP bridge

Valuation
2026 exit ARR$4.0
AI cloud operating EV$19.8
Residual Bitcoin$0.20
Power option$1.50
Net debt$5.82
Equity value$15.7
Fair value per share$36.61

Sources

  1. August 27, 2026 FY26 PR / 8-K EX-99.1: $4bn contracted ARR for 2026 capacity; $1bn operating ARR as of August 26 after Horizon 1 Microsoft acceptance. Horizons 2-4 targeted for Q4 2026. New multi-year frontier-lab contract; other recent signings Cohere, Prometheus, Perplexity, Figure AI, Fal AI, Higgsfield AI. $3.6bn IG GPU financing at 6.0% funds 96% of associated GPU capex with prepayments; new $2.8bn GPU financings including $2.4bn Mackenzie at 9.0% fund 90% of associated GPU capex. FY26 revenue $707.0m (AI Cloud $128.8m, Bitcoin $578.2m), net loss $(702.6)m, Adjusted EBITDA $245.7m. Q4 revenue $137.2m (AI Cloud $70.5m, Bitcoin $66.7m), net loss $(684.0)m, Adjusted EBITDA $19.2m. Cash including restricted $7,619.5m at June 30. — sec.gov
  2. FY26 10-K year ended June 30, 2026, filed August 27: 394,058,648 ordinary shares outstanding as of August 14, 2026; 380,193,608 issued and outstanding at June 30. Cash $5,895.6m, restricted cash $1,723.9m. Convertible notes principal $6,745.7m (2029 $233.4m / $13.64, 2030 $212.3m / $16.81, 2031 $1,000m / $85.63, 2032 $1,150m / $51.40, 2033 Jun $1,150m / $51.40, 2033 Dec $3,000m / $73.07). GPU financing drawn $938m of $3,645m committed ($525m USPP, $413m DDTL). Finance lease PV $243.8m. Unvested/outstanding RSUs about 15.0m service plus 5.7m performance; options 5.5m at $66 WA exercise. ATM under the $6.0bn prospectus had issued 47,165,838 shares for $2.492bn gross as of August 14. Total indebtedness principal $7,976.0m including finance leases. — sec.gov
  3. August 27, 2026 FY26 results call: $4bn ARR contracted for 2026 capacity does not include 2027 ramp such as $700m NVIDIA cloud ARR. Exited Q4 at roughly $0.5bn ARR; $1bn today after Horizon 1; more than $4bn by end of December quarter, with a significant amount of December capacity late in the quarter so GAAP revenue effect predominantly in the March quarter. FY27 capex guided $25-30bn. Existing cash, committed GPU financing and prepayments about $14bn. Targeting additional ~$8bn GPU financing and prepayments. Mining expected to be effectively decommissioned by end of December 2026. Q1 cash SG&A expected +$40-50m sequentially. — globenewswire.com
  4. August 13, 2026: Horizon 1 delivered to and accepted by Microsoft. First of four 50MW IT-load liquid-cooled deployments at Childress under the five-year $9.7bn Microsoft contract. — sec.gov
  5. June 1, 2026: closed $3.65bn investment-grade GPU financing for the Microsoft contract ($2.10bn US private placement plus $1.55bn delayed-draw term loan). Blended coupon 6.00%. — iren.gcs-web.com
  6. May 14, 2026: closed $3.0bn of 1.00% convertible senior notes due 2033. Implied conversion about $73. OTM vs the August 28 close. — iren.gcs-web.com
  7. August 4, 2026: closed Mirantis for about 12.6m ordinary shares plus about $40m of cash, RSUs and other consideration. — sec.gov
  8. June 30, 2026 8-K: Board granted 9,099,328 RSUs to each co-CEO (18,198,656 combined), effective about July 1, 2026. — sec.gov
  9. 17-analyst S&P Global consensus on StockAnalysis as of August 28, 2026 after the print: Buy, average target $78.19, median $80, low $41, high $131. Same-day maintains include Cantor Fitzgerald Buy $99, Bernstein Buy $100, BTIG Buy $80, Canaccord Buy $79. Street average is the bull case, not the base. — stockanalysis.com

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