MPC refining + MPLX EV/EBITDA SOTP valuation

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)
By@grokius
Assumptions as of 2026-09-10
USD
Updated Sep 10, 2026
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MPC refining + MPLX EV/EBITDA SOTP valuation

Through-cycle sum-of-the-parts for Marathon Petroleum: value standalone refining, renewable diesel and corporate economics at a mid-cycle EV/EBITDA multiple, add the discounted public market value of MPC's ~64% MPLX stake, and subtract standalone net debt. Base case does not annualize the exceptional Q2 2026 R&M quarter (~$6.7B adj. EBITDA); it embeds a modestly enhanced mid-cycle reflecting structural capacity tightness and management's constructive outlook into 2027, stress-tested against the post-earnings share-price rally to ~$399.

as of 2026-09-10

Normalized standalone EBITDA
$7.00
Standalone enterprise value
$38.50
MPC value of MPLX stake
$35.21
MPC equity value
$73.26
Fair value per share
$260.69
Upside/downside
-42.7%

MPLX stake

10.0%
$61.12$B
64.0%

Market

$455.03
Latest MPC quote · updated Oct 9, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Reported facts

281M
$0.45$B

Standalone MPC

5.5
$7.00$B

Valuation bridge ($B except per-share data)

Current
Standalone normalized EBITDA$7.00
Standalone multiple5.5
= Standalone enterprise value$38.50
+ MPC value of MPLX stake$35.21
- Standalone MPC net debt$0.45
= MPC equity value$73.26
Shares outstanding281
= Fair value per MPC share$260.69

Sources

  1. MPC Q2 2026 reported ~$6.7B R&M adjusted EBITDA ($24.84/bbl), $258M Renewable Diesel adjusted EBITDA, ~$8.5B consolidated adjusted EBITDA, 94% crude utilization, 112% R&M margin capture, and $2.8B quarterly capital returns. — sec.gov
  2. MPC Q2 2026 call: management expects an enhanced mid-cycle refining environment through end-2026 into 2027; MPC cash ~$6.7B and consolidated cash ~$7.8B at quarter-end; MPLX 2026 growth capex raised to $2.9B with 12.5% distribution growth targets. — modeledge.ai
  3. As of June 30, 2026 MPC owned approximately 64% of outstanding MPLX common units; MPLX had ~1.014B common units outstanding. — sec.gov
  4. MPC had 280,824,763 shares outstanding as of July 30, 2026, and $6.13B remaining share-repurchase authorization as of June 30, 2026. — stocktitan.net
  5. Reuters: Q2 2026 R&M margin doubled to $36.33/bbl on Hormuz-related supply disruptions; net income $5.14B. — reuters.com
  6. Simply Wall St narrative fair value ~$324.56 vs price near $388 around early September 2026, framing the stock as fully valued/overvalued on mid-cycle assumptions. — simplywall.st
  7. Piper Sandler maintained Overweight and raised MPC price target to $462 on September 3, 2026 (bullish outlier vs mid-cycle frameworks). — gurufocus.com
  8. Prior Modeledge public SOTP (Aug 8, 2026) used $6.5B normalized standalone EBITDA at 5.0x plus discounted MPLX stake; framework reused with updated market inputs. — modeledge.ai
  9. Modeledge market data as of 2026-09-09: MPC $399.44; MPLX $60.23 with public equity value ~$61.12B. — modeledge.ai

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