Vicor 2030 FCF exit-multiple valuation

Sources

1. October 22: investigated -15.66% daily move through indexed issuer activity, release discovery and web searches. No newly verified quantified issuer change supports altering the existing operating assumptions. Preserve methodology and financial anchors; update regular-session reference price and market-relative outputs. Exact company-specific price attribution remains unconfirmed. (accessed 2026-10-22)
2. Regular-session reference $179.99 retrieved 2026-10-22T15:22:05.10007-06:00. Quote updates alone do not change operating assumptions. (accessed 2026-10-22)
3. October 20 Model Edge regular-session reference $204.14, refreshed 2026-10-20T15:09:45.833651-06:00. Retrieval time is not trade time or an asserted official closing print; financial anchors retain their stated dates. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-20)
4. October 20 Q3 release and full call: revenue $197.114M (product $130.501M, royalties $66.613M), cash $513.137M, no funded debt or remaining long-term investment, diluted weighted-average shares 47.609M, backlog $406M. Update net cash from $456.1M to $513.137M and base diluted shares 47.7M to 47.609M. Q4 expectation of 10% product growth plus at least $43M royalties implies about $186.551M Q4 and $639.986M FY2026 reported revenue, not formal total guidance. Keep the existing $610M normalized revenue anchor, 27% CAGR, 26% terminal FCF margin, 28x and 10.5% discount rate: Q3 catch-up is unquantified, legal costs average about 20% of royalties, and Fab 2/3 capex is not quantified. Fab 2 initial equipment is expected Q2 2027; Fab 3 construction is not committed. The royalty-stage artifact is commercial policy, not disclosed dollar rates or awarded damages. Q3 results are a credible contemporaneous catalyst for the 7.06% rise. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-10-20)
5. Additional supporting source for October 20 scoped review. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-20)
6. Additional supporting source for October 20 scoped review. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-20)
7. October 16 Model Edge regular-session VICR reference $191.5, refreshed 2026-10-16T15:05:06.459689-06:00. Retrieval time is not trade time. Scope and separate financial-anchor changes are described in refresh context. (accessed 2026-10-16)
8. October 15 Model Edge regular-session VICR reference $219.92, refreshed 2026-10-15T15:04:35.844106-06:00. Retrieval time is not trade time. Scope and separate financial-anchor changes are described in refresh context. (accessed 2026-10-15)
9. October 9 Model Edge reference VICR price $266.07, refreshed 2026-10-09T15:02:41.376241-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this quote; operating-assumption decisions are separately explained. (accessed 2026-10-09)
10. October 9 two company-linked research artifacts reviewed. Cerebras 10% of illustrative $640M FY2026 revenue is a user scenario, not confirmed customer concentration or guidance; illustrative 2027 revenue/MW/content estimates must not be added to the model's existing $610M FY2026 base. OpenAI deployment annual additions are not independent duplicate site commitments. Artifact's 2030-31 timing for the June 2026 $2.5B revenue/70% GM/40% operating-margin aspiration is extrapolated from prior timing, not a company deadline. Preserve current DCF/revenue assumptions and avoid double counting optionality. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-09)
11. Additional supporting source for the October 9 scoped review; see dated evidence note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-09)
12. October 8 Model Edge reference VICR price $262.32, refreshed 2026-10-08T15:00:49.06866-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this quote; intrinsic assumptions only change on evidence. (accessed 2026-10-08)
13. October 7 Model Edge reference VICR quote $282.78, refreshed 2026-10-07T15:03:00.830047-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this price; valuation changes are separately explained. (accessed 2026-10-07)
14. October 7 price -5.52%. No new issuer quantitative catalyst verified. September21 improved Q3 sequential revenue outlook was previously known, not new evidence today. Preserve current DCF610Mrevenue,27%CAGR,26%terminalFCFmargin,28x/10.5% and existing netcash; $181.392350 unchanged. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-07)
15. September 21 issuer update raised Q3 sequential revenue growth from nearly 10% to more than 20%, including royalties from a new non-exclusive VPD license; four OEM/hyperscaler licensees were cited. This is a confirmed favorable catalyst relevant to September 23's 5.52% rally. September 11 acquired New Hampshire sites support Fab 2/3 expansion, with initial Fab 2 deployment about a year away. Neither royalty recurrence/rates nor factory cost/cash commitments are quantified. Preserve the long-term DCF assumptions rather than compounding one quarter's royalty benefit into 2030; reconcile recurring earnings, capex and cash before revising. ITC and historical source backlog remain. — vicorcorporation.gcs-web.com (accessed 2026-09-23)
16. September 23 reference VICR price $283.16; quote timestamp 2026-09-23T15:21:17.709698-06:00. Market price alone does not change operating value. (accessed 2026-09-23)
17. September 14 primary ITC notice confirms receipt of Vicor's September 9 vertical-power-delivery complaint DN3936 and solicits public-interest comments. Receipt is not a judgment, damages award or monetized license. No quantified model benefit. Full complaint/notice review remains open after direct PDF fetch failed. — public-inspection.federalregister.gov (accessed 2026-09-14)
18. September 14 Modeledge reference VICR share price $184.73 retrieved after the regular U.S. close. Quote updates affect market-relative outputs; forecast changes, if any, are separately identified. (accessed 2026-09-14)
19. September 11 Modeledge reference share price $197.91. The share quote changes market-relative outputs, not operating forecasts or intrinsic fair value. (accessed 2026-09-11)
20. Reviewed both 8-Ks, two institutional ownership amendments and the September 3 Form 4 since August 25. The August 25 $150M repurchase authorization supersedes the prior program; it is not completed purchases. September bylaws and passive ownership disclosures do not revise operating guidance. Philip Davies exercised/sold 3,073 shares under a pre-existing 10b5-1 plan; retain the rounded diluted-share estimate. Investigated +11.15% daily move without a verified new fundamental catalyst; retain revenue, FCF, margin and exit-multiple assumptions. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-11)
21. Vicor's Q2 2026 10-Q reported $143.4M of quarterly revenue, $453.6M of cash, 46.1M basic shares outstanding, and $379.7M of one-year backlog. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-25)
22. Vicor's Q2 2026 release reported 26.9% sequential revenue growth, 58.0% gross margin, $34.0M of operating cash flow, and a 145% year-over-year increase in backlog. — vicorcorporation.gcs-web.com (accessed 2026-08-25)
23. Management's Q2 2026 call guided to more than $600M of FY2026 revenue and described long-term objectives of $2.5B revenue, 70% gross margin, and 40% operating margin. (accessed 2026-08-25)
24. The current share price was refreshed from Modeledge market data for VICR on August 25, 2026. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-08-25)