NBIS Hawk valuation - AI cloud EV/ARR sum of parts

Sources

1. October 22 6-K and financing release disclose $3.5B senior secured bridge agreed October 17, maturity October 16 2027, SOFR +2.75% stepping 0.25% each 90 days to 3.50%, security and minimum-liquidity covenant. Commitment is not proof of funds drawn or available net cash. Preserve $8B exit ARR, existing multiple and capital bridge until draw/cash uses and financing conditions are reconciled. Daily 7.23% decline investigated; no quantified new ARR guidance. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-22)
2. Regular-session reference $159.17 retrieved 2026-10-22T15:22:04.961213-06:00. Quote updates alone do not change operating assumptions. (accessed 2026-10-22)
3. October 16 Model Edge regular-session NBIS reference $165.47, refreshed 2026-10-16T15:05:08.179395-06:00. Retrieval time is not trade time. Scope and separate financial-anchor changes are described in refresh context. (accessed 2026-10-16)
4. Reviewed 0001513845-26-000130 source content. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-16)
5. October 15 Model Edge regular-session NBIS reference $188.41, refreshed 2026-10-15T15:04:37.998376-06:00. Retrieval time is not trade time. Scope and separate financial-anchor changes are described in refresh context. (accessed 2026-10-15)
6. Read new debt-maturity research artifact and cross-checked issuer financing releases: August notes accrete to 110%/125% at 2030/2034 maturity, while conversion shares use original principal. July $775M secured facility is a financing commitment with draw/current-cash/amortization reconciliation outstanding. No unmatched future maturity amount is added to today's debt bridge. October 15 Form 144 proposes sale of 7,260 existing RSU shares. — nebius.com (accessed 2026-10-15)
7. October 14 Model Edge regular-session reference NBIS price $186.01, refreshed 2026-10-14T14:58:23.792525-06:00. Price refresh changes market-relative outputs; separate evidence/relative-method changes are described below. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-14)
8. New public research artifact relies on third-party project estimates and notes uncertain tenant/capacity attribution; cumulative MW are not annual additions or contracted Nebius revenue. No confirmed ARR revision. Preserve $8B exit ARR, 8x and paired convert cash/debt plus actual 15.8M exchange shares. Price -10.08%; Reuters describes broader AI financing/rates pressure. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-14)
9. Additional supporting source for the October 14 scoped review. — investing.com (accessed 2026-10-14)
10. October 12 Model Edge regular-session reference NBIS price $210.06, refreshed 2026-10-12T15:02:21.615862-06:00. Price refresh changes market-relative outputs; BRUN separately reprices its existing relative valuation. (accessed 2026-10-12)
11. Microsoft's own-workload Maia expansion is competitive context; no specific Nebius contracted-capacity change disclosed. — blogs.microsoft.com (accessed 2026-10-12)
12. October 8 Model Edge reference NBIS price $219.71, refreshed 2026-10-08T15:00:50.43632-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this quote; intrinsic assumptions only change on evidence. (accessed 2026-10-08)
13. Goldman Sachs October 8 13G/A reports a passive September 30 5.1% Class A holding; it is not an issuer capital raise. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-08)
14. October 7 Model Edge reference NBIS quote $237.15, refreshed 2026-10-07T15:03:03.431849-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this price; valuation changes are separately explained. (accessed 2026-10-07)
15. October 7 price -5.09% following prior+7.44%. No verified new operating guidance or quantified financing/acquisition terms found. Broad AI infrastructure weakness is market context only. Preserve $8BARR,8x,and existing convertible/cash/share treatment; $183.056569 unchanged in both linked portfolios. Inferize terms remain undisclosed; July secured financing requires full cash-use reconciliation. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-07)
16. October 6 Model Edge reference NBIS quote $249.87, refreshed 2026-10-06T15:02:52.612173-06:00. Price changes refresh market-relative outputs; evidence-supported valuation changes are separately described. (accessed 2026-10-06)
17. October 6: price rose 7.44% to $249.87. Market reporting points to the earlier Inferize acquisition and AI capacity momentum, not a verified new quantified contract or revised ARR guide. New Form 4 reports COO sales of 500,000 existing shares under a May 22 plan, not an incremental grant. Preserve $8B exit ARR, 8x base multiple and the current financing bridge in both portfolios. Inferize consideration remains undisclosed; no invented acquisition accretion. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-06)
18. Additional supporting source for the October 6 review; see the dated evidence note. — nebius.com (accessed 2026-10-06)
19. Additional supporting source for the October 6 review; see the dated evidence note. — benzinga.com (accessed 2026-10-06)
20. October 2 Model Edge reference NBIS quote $242.81, refreshed 2026-10-02T17:10:06.29364-06:00. Price alone is not evidence to change operating forecasts; BRUN separately refreshes the existing peer-relative valuation. (accessed 2026-10-02)
21. October 1 acquisition of Inferize supports TokenFactory cold-start and GPU-utilization capabilities. Company release discloses no consideration, funding, incremental ARR or quantified margin benefit. Preserve the existing $8B ARR/8x framework and financing bridge in both linked portfolios until acquisition economics are available. Boynton Form 4 confirms sale of 50 existing shares under a March plan, not new issuance. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-02)
22. September 29 Modeledge reference NBIS stock price $237.355, retrieved 2026-09-29T15:15:01.305628-06:00; a post-session reference snapshot, not an asserted official close. No operating or intrinsic valuation inputs changed in this review. (accessed 2026-09-29)
23. September 29 Form 144 proposes sale of 50 existing shares held by the John W. Boynton IV trust under a March 6 plan; not 50 million shares or new issuer capital. Retain the existing $8B exit ARR, 8x valuation, pro forma convertible cash/debt bridge and dilution cushion. The July $775M secured financing and complete share-class/cash-use reconciliation remain unresolved; both ai and main rows use this same model. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-29)
24. September 24: shares rose 7.44%; no newly quantified primary-source operating or financing catalyst was verified. Retain the existing $8B exit ARR, 8x multiple, net-debt and convertible bridge. The July $775M secured-loan closing/cash-use reconciliation remains open, as does the older indexed window. Do not recognize financing proceeds as free equity value or infer contract economics from price momentum. (accessed 2026-09-24)
25. September 24 reference NBIS price $243.48; quote refresh timestamp 2026-09-24T15:15:28.398741-06:00. This changes market-relative outputs; price alone does not change operating assumptions. (accessed 2026-09-24)
26. AI-infrastructure selloff is market context only. Preserve the already modeled offering/conversion treatment; the $775M July secured-loan bridge remains unresolved. (accessed 2026-09-14)
27. September 14 Modeledge reference NBIS share price $212.19 retrieved after the regular U.S. close. Quote updates affect market-relative outputs; forecast changes, if any, are separately identified. (accessed 2026-09-14)
28. September 10 Modeledge reference share price $228.11; market price alone is not used to revise operating forecasts. (accessed 2026-09-10)
29. September 10 mover and company-news review found no verified new company-specific catalyst. Preserve existing revenue/multiple and capital structure; the previously identified July secured-debt bridge remains unresolved. (accessed 2026-09-10)
30. Q2 2026 release reported revenue of $582.3M, adjusted EBITDA of $236.2M, cash and equivalents of $8.042B, current debt of $46.7M, non-current debt of $8.499B, non-marketable equity securities of $1.607B, and 271,855,218 shares outstanding at June 30, 2026 (238,400,165 Class A and 33,455,053 Class B). — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-25)
31. Aug 24, 2026 close 6-K EX-99.1: closed $3.45B of 0.50% converts due 2030 and $2.3B of 4.50% converts due 2034 ($5.75B aggregate original principal after greenshoe). Concurrently exchanged $400M original principal of 2.00% 2029 notes and $400M of 3.00% 2031 notes for about 15.8 million Class A shares. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-25)
32. Aug 19, 2026 pricing 6-K EX-99.1: estimated net proceeds about $5.68B if greenshoe fully exercised. 2030 notes convert at 3.1902 shares per $1,000 (about $313.46); 2034 notes at 3.0802 (about $324.65). Company may settle conversions in cash, Class A shares, or a combination. Indenture default settlement method is physical settlement. 2030 notes accrete to 110% of original principal; 2034 notes to 125%. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-25)
33. Management said annualized run-rate revenue reached $3.0B at June 30, 2026 and reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance for $7B-$9B ARR, $3.0B-$3.4B revenue, about 40% adjusted EBITDA margin, and $20B-$25B capex. — nebius.com (accessed 2026-08-13)
34. Q2 2026 shareholder letter said capex was about $5.7B, 2026 customer prepayments are expected to exceed $9B, the July secured debt financing raised $775M at SOFR plus 2.50%, and customer commitments exceed $40B. — assets.nebius.com (accessed 2026-08-13)
35. Modeledge price service returned an NBIS price of $218.50 at 2026-08-25T16:49:06Z; this updates only the upside denominator. Market cap was $52.44B. (accessed 2026-08-25)
36. September 8 Palantir partnership names Nebius preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner with integration and deployment plans, but discloses no incremental contracted ARR, minimum revenue or pricing. August AGM authorized issuance and repurchases; authorization is not executed dilution or buybacks. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-08)
37. September 8 Goldman and September 9 Citi conferences described strong demand, contract-mix optimization and prospective asset-light capacity. No new period-specific ARR guidance or quantified Palantir economics replaces the $7B-$9B exit-2026 range; retained existing financing and dilution treatment. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-09)
38. Goldman conference September 8: prospective third-party infrastructure access may expand capacity in 2027 and later, without a quantified new current-year ARR contribution. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-09)